FlamesNation Mailbag: Back from bye

We’ve only had one game played in the past week, but it hasn’t stopped the questions from coming in. In this edition, we peep potential future blockbusters, pending UFAs, and more.

The latter. Mikael Backlund made Joe Colborne and Lance Bouma punch above their weight (and get paid accordingly), and now Troy Brouwer is doing the same. It’s not a great sample size, but Matthew Tkachuk and Backlund have seen a 4% drop in their CF as a unit with Brouwer on board. Of course, that’s going from 58% to 54%, which is still good but not optimal.

Going from Matt Stajan and Curtis Lazar to one of the best lines in all of hockey is pretty much that “a rising tide lifts all ships” cliche manifested in hockey. Brouwer might be getting on the scoresheet more often since joining the line, but that’s because his new linemates are some of the best at generating shots and shot attempts in the entire league. He’s going to look good with good players. It’s happened before (though if it boosts any trade value, is it worth it in the long run?).

On the topic of Backlund…

It doesn’t.

Backlund is an all around better centre than Mark Jankowski:

Backlund is just that much better at shot attempt generation and suppression than Jankowski. Perhaps he lacks the soft hands Janko owns, but he does a much better job at the all around two-way game that makes him that much more valuable. Backlund’s defensive strengths compared to Jankowski’s is why making this move would be a very bad bet. Janko’s current CA/60 would be just shy of Backlund’s career worst (2014-15: the worst possession year for the Flames ever, and the only time Backlund’s CA/60 creeped over 56).

Context is important, too. Glen Gulutzan uses the two centres in polar opposite situations. Jankowski starts in the offensive zone the most out of all Flames centres, while Backlund starts there the second least (behind Stajan). There’s also the fact that Backlund is trusted to face off regularly against the generational talents of the NHL, which can’t be said for Janko.

If the team moves on from Backlund, they’re immediately going to start looking for another Backlund to replace him. Jankowski is not another Backlund. He’s built hype this year, but in completely different circumstances that would not hold up if he was given Backlund’s responsibilities.

For those out of the know, Tyler Wotherspoon will become a group 6 UFA at the end of the year, as he will pass age 25 without the NHL experience necessary to let the Flames keep his RFA rights for another year.

Ryan Pike always says “every team has a Wotherspoon” whenever his name pops up in trade discussion, and that’s because there are many tweener defencemen out there. He’s looked great this year in the AHL (after nearly three full seasons there), but his ceiling is likely third pairing guy. The problem is that he’s been fighting for and losing that spot for four straight years. Brett Kulak was drafted a year after Wotherspoon and has nailed down the only spot Wotherspoon can feasibly have. It’s just the reality of the league.

There’s probably no real value the Flames can pry from him, so I can’t see them re-signing Wotherspoon again. I think he just leaves. Whether it’s to another NHL team or over to Europe, I can’t say, but Wotherspoon is very replaceable. The Flames can get Juuso Valimaki AHL time next season, and that’s probably more important than continuing to pay an NHL salary to a guy who isn’t playing NHL hockey.

I can’t see them making a rental. They’ve already traded away their intriguing draft picks, and they probably wouldn’t want to move prospects for just a rental. They seem to be gelling with the group they have, so what really needs to be changed?

Besides, if Jaromir Jagr and Kris Versteeg return to the ice before the playoffs start, they’re pretty much the rental-quality players that typically get swapped at trade deadline. Why pay for something you already have?

On the Hrivik note.

Hrivk is a pretty good AHLer, still unknown at the NHL level. His time with the Rangers suggested a guy who could probably hack it in bottom six minutes. He could maybe make an impression, but nothing too spectacular. He’s also 26 and probably not destined for higher things beyond that though. That makes him a perfect 13F candidate: low reward, of an inconsequential age. Him sitting isn’t the end of the world and him playing isn’t going to make much of a difference.

Brady Tkachuk is looking to be somewhere behind Rasmus Dahlin, Filip Zadina, and Andrei Svechnikov at the very least. Perhaps Adam Boqvist or even Quinn Hughes could make a case, but he’s solidly inside that four-to-six range.

Who knows how the lottery breaks, but we’re looking at teams like Vancouver, Ottawa, Montreal, Florida, Edmonton (gulp) and Detroit to be drafting in that range. Those teams could all benefit from adding a Tkachuk (you know Vancouver isn’t going to make that mistake again), so getting them to give that up is going to be very, very pricey.

Which is why I think this scenario is just too unrealistic. It would be scary to have the Brothers Tkachuk on the same team, but it’s not going to happen. First off, no other team would allow that circumstance to happen, but also because the Flames are lacking the assets to make such a deal. They don’t have a first round pick this year, usually a prerequisite to moving up in the draft, and they don’t have a whole lot of appealing assets. Given that they’re likely to be trading with rebuilding teams, they’re unlikely to offer anything enticing enough to make these teams give up a future superstar.

Matthew? Yes. I did and it’s some of the best money I’ve spent. Brady? Look above.