FlamesNation Mailbag: Home for the holidays

Hey, we’re back from the holidays to bring you the mailbag… which also happens to fall on a holiday.

Even as a proponent of NHLe, that’s not quite how it works.

Oliver Kylington and Rasmus Andersson both have an NHLe over 20 (Kylington 22, Andersson 27) in their age 20 seasons, which is generally a really good indicator of a defenceman ready to make the jump from AHL to NHL. If we read the stat quite literally, the duo should put up 22 and 27 points over 82 games next year, which is nothing to scoff at for 21-year-old defensive rookies.

Would I start selling the second pairing defencemen because we have two NHL-ready kids? Probably not. Kylington and Andersson have really high ceilings, but they’ve played a combined three NHL games in five combined seasons of professional hockey. NHLe is based on the average per game scoring rate change a player sees when jumping from one league to the NHL. Inherent in that is the average conditions which exists when jumping from one league to the other. On average, most NHL-ready AHL defenceman go from the #1 unit in the AHL to the #3 in the NHL. Not the #2. They might look great in the A, but they’d get crushed in the NHL. Those point projections might not hold up at all if they were under the stresses of the second pairing. It would be a bad idea.

I do feel that they cash in on Michael Stone during the offseason to try and get picks while also opening a spot for Andersson. They gave entirely too many years to Stone, betting that he could probably be buried by the time Andersson was ready. I don’t know how Kylington could get in without sacrificing Brett Kulak, but I’m sure the Flames have a plan in mind.

Andrew Mangiapane, yes. It’s long overdue, but the Michael Frolik injury has provided a fortuitous opportunity for him. Even without Frolik injured, I feel the Flames would be bold enough to try him anyways given the frustrations of this season so far.

As for other available options, I feel that they’re more or less impossible. The Flames have traded themselves into a corner, basically. They’ve already invested a lot into Mike Smith and Travis Hamonic, and that’s just enough to keep them a head above .500 nearly halfway into the season. Investing more assets for what could just push them a little bit more ahead (remember that the Flames’ problems are not just limited to one or two players) is probably not worth it if the result is a second place division finish instead of a third.

Specific to the question, Thomas Vanek is going to be another deadline rental selloff for a pick that might be too high for the Flames to have and/or be willing to give up. Mike Hoffman is intriguing, but I feel that they would have to throw at least an NHL, AHL, and CHL option as well as a pick to make it happen. Again, too much.

I think Dalton Prout is partially here because he could be a handy emergency recall in case of a defensive injury. If you remember everyone fuming at Andersson not playing last week (after flying red-eye to Calgary on a moment’s notice), Prout can satisfy everyone by being a ready body while not denying playing time to important Flames prospects. The Flames like keeping their prospects tucked away until they’re 100% ready to play NHL hockey. Might as well just have a guy hang around the pressbox instead of them.

Not asked in the question, but I have to wonder what the Flames do with the glut in Stockton. They currently have Andersson, Kylington, Tyler Wotherspoon, Josh Healey, Adam Ollas Mattsson, Kayle Doetzel (AHL contract), Oleg Yevenko (AHL contract), Cody Goloubef (AHL contract), and now Prout on the team. Does he deny Flames prospects playing time? Seems a little problematic.

This question unfortunately requires some more information before being answered.

People might forget that David Rittich has only played in all of six NHL games, starting in four. He has been fantastic in those four starts, but it is four starts. He’s earned the right to get more starts besides back-to-backs but I don’t think the team sees him as a starter at all yet, and it’s going to be tough to find out. Mike Smith has to falter badly enough over consecutive starts (which he has at points this season) that Rittich can get a few games of his own. I’ve pointed it out before, but he has had his fair share of struggles in the AHL which should raise doubts.

As for Tyler Parsons and Jon Gillies, that also requires more time. Gillies has finally had the net to himself, and we’ll have to see what he can do with it as the true starter (Mason McDonald is probably not going to be getting many starts while he’s up). Parsons is also a pretty big question mark. He’s ascended to that back-up role in the AHL, but he’s coming off his second injury this season and coming in a little rusty in a more difficult league is going to be quite the challenge.

Ask again in six months. Or perhaps two weeks, knowing how goaltending usually works.

I’m going to take the easy way out and say Dillon Dube. The kid might not be hitting the scoresheet, but he’s doing pretty much everything he needs to. He’s trusted to shut down other teams and bring the puck north and he’s been doing that. Juuso Valimaki has also been a standout, even on that stacked Finnish blueline.

Least impressive might be Adam Ruzicka. He’s been steady at times, but some of his warts are really showing. Part of that could be because Slovakia as a whole has been overwhelmed by much superior competition (Finland, Canada, and the USA all have a case to medal), but he hasn’t done much to distinguish himself.

There were one million questions about this, so might as well pick the one that wasn’t a rhetorical question.

The short answer is “no.” This is the same old song and dance we’ve seen from teams since we began measuring statistics like this. Coaches are on the hot seat whenever the shooting percentage drops, and Jack Adams favourites when it rises. The Flames are top 10 in 5v5 corsi for%, fenwick for%, shots for%, scoring chances for%, and high danger scoring chances for%. They are bottom 10 in shooting percentage. Gulutzan is not a bad coach because of a shooting percentage dip the same way Bob Hartley wasn’t a good one because of a higher than average SH%, despite what the NHL award voters think.

That happens, and it happens quite often in hockey, even to teams not named the Flames. Good teams lose, even to teams that aren’t as good. That’s a rule of all sports, but if you’re the better team more nights than not, you’re going to win more games. That’s how the Flames have been playing over the past month. It’s hard to argue that the team has checked out or isn’t responding when they’ve outperformed their opponents in the vast majority of their games.

Not to say that Gulutzan is perfect. Of course he has weird habits that bite the Flames in the ass from time to time. There’s no real reason why Dougie Hamilton, the team’s best defender, isn’t seeing the team’s best minutes. There is no reason for playing the fourth line in the third period, especially when the team needs a goal. The powerplay, which has seen a personnel upgrade, still won’t shoot the puck. He can really improve his luck if he improves these things.

But the point remains that overall, he has the Flames playing the way that teams who usually make the playoffs play. In the long run, that’s important. It seems for all the bluster, people have forgotten that the Flames are still two points out of a playoff spot with 43 games left to play. If they keep putting pucks to the net (as they have) and get into those dangerous areas (which they also have), they will make the playoffs, no question. Keep the end in mind.