FlamesNation Mailbag: More Sam Bennett (again)

The neat thing about the mailbag is that it’s probably one of, if not the only regular piece of content on this website that has major reader input. Whatever the readers want to know about, I will provide my answers.

The people want Sam Bennett, and Sam Bennett they will get.

(If you are a regular submitter, please stop sending Sam Bennett questions. If you aren’t a regular submitter, now is your time to shine.)

The weird thing about Bennett’s possession numbers is that they’re mostly the same as last year. He finished last season with a 5v5 CF of 52.55% and currently rocks a 52.16%. If anything, some of his possession numbers have gone down. His Fenwick for has gone from 52.11% to 50.56% and his shots for have gone from 50.20% to 48%.

What has changed is the context. Bennett has been receiving the hardest zone starts of his career, at 50.72 OZS%. Still leaning a bit towards the offensive side but it’s about 9% harder starts than last season. So if Bennett can put up the good results without the extensive sheltering, that’s a very good step forwards. The knock on Bennett was that he couldn’t ever produce despite given the on-ice opportunity to (his linemates hampered him, but not the deployment). If he’s being trusted to do more two-way work, his possession numbers are fine.

The real step forward, and what Bennett needs to keep doing, is up the intensity with high-danger chances. He’s currently first on the team in terms of individual high danger chance generation, and has been on the ice for six HD goals for, compared to one against. That number is going to balance out, but if he can keep doing good work in the dirty areas, he’s probably going to start seeing sustained production.

I would like to see them try that top line again. I didn’t mind Elias Lindholm as the 3C between James Neal and Dillon Dube, which was a pretty threatening unit whenever they were deployed. The top unit of Gaudreau-Monahan-Bennett didn’t have a great showing against Washington, but given the defensive deficiencies of that line, which haven’t been resolved with Lindholm’s presence as hoped, it might be worth it to try and leverage all the offensive talent to make a superweapon line and let the 3M/MMA and third lines handle shutdown duties.

Bennett’s secondary position might be back to being Neal’s buddy, as that’s a pairing that has been working. Peters is a bit unpredictable when it comes to making lineups, but I think he could give Sam a spin with Matthew Tkachuk and Mikael Backlund.

It’s a tricky question. The Flames are moving into a contention window where they simply can’t wait for Bennett to be better, so it makes sense to trade him. That would be four years of Bennett not going anywhere. At some point, you have to cut your losses and move on.

On the other hand, if he’s going to be reliable ~30 point guy who can play up and down the lineup, you can keep him around on the cheap for his remaining RFA years. There’s not really any impressive depth that could use his spot, aside from Andrew Mangiapane, but that’s replacing a known asset with an unknown one, and I feel the Flames are hesitant to do that. This current management group has invested a lot into Bennett and probably wants to stick with the project until there’s no more excuses left.

As usual with Bennett, it’s going to be about waiting to see whether Good Bennett or Bad Bennett emerges. Thankfully, those two dates are very far away so we’ll have time to figure it out.

Yes. He’s had Bennett-esque scoring luck with plenty of dangerous chances but no goals. He actually ranks second behind Bennett in individual high-danger chances/60, so one day, those pucks will go in. I’d suggest trying the Bennett-Dube-Neal line, because you have three players who are generating chances (the three are third, fourth, and fifth respectively in individual scoring chances for/60) but are due for more goals than they actually have.

I think it depends on what he wants to do with Michael Frolik. Based on ice time, it’s easy to say that Frolik isn’t one of Peters’ favourites. But given that Austin Czarnik had three straight healthy scratches when the Flames were hurting for goals, it may be that he really doesn’t have any favourite second line RW.

Like most things Peters does, I think it’s a situational thing. The MMA line has been the go-to for the majority of games, but the times the 3M line does come out is when the team has to face another mega-line. The Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak line against Boston is such an example. But those lines are often few and far between that I feel Peters would role with the MMA line for the majority of the time and use Frolik to boost a bottom six line. Maybe 3M reunites against Toronto at some point given their depth, but we’ll see.

Given the overall performance of the Juuso Valimaki-Rasmus Andersson pairing and the trust Peters has in them (putting Rasmus out in an extra attacker scenario is a pretty neat sign), I’d probably say that Micheal Stone is going to be eating popcorn for the next few games. He’s been passed over by two rookies who at least demonstrate better defensive sense and certainly demonstrate better offensive instincts.

But, there’s the overall instability of the defensive corps and the typical overreaction to bad performances that make things less written in stone, pardon the pun. Peters could certainly blow it all up if he feels that something needs tweaking (i.e: third pairing TJ). I think Stone isn’t permanently banished to the press box the same way Dalton Prout is, but I say with confidence that his usage will be sparing this season. Unless Valimaki and/or Andersson have major goof ups, the defence seems set.

Noah Hanifin has been just a guy to me so far this year. He’s got great skating, but not much more than that. Perhaps you factor in the instability of his partner going down with injury in the first game in addition to him having to essentially raise a rookie who is also playing above his head, but he hasn’t been up to snuff. A few egregious defensive zone turnovers and some passive play made me cringe, but he’s still just 21 and has room to grow. Perhaps things being back to normal settles him down, too.

However, I think Valimaki is more likely to be a #1 D than Hanifin. The time frame is a bit generous, but Valimaki has looked pretty solid for a freshly 20-year-old player, and it’s not unfeasible that he rises the ranks quite quickly. He checks pretty much every box for a #1 D-man, and it’s not going to be long until he reaches that potential. Valimaki has been compared to Philadelphia’s Ivan Provorov, who is already the Flyers’ best defenceman in his third season of hockey. If that comparison holds, perhaps we can expect great things from Valimaki in the future.

Cory Schneider is an obvious target. He’s been a very, very solid goalie since being appointed to the starting position in New Jersey, but his recent injury history leaves me worrying. He also has a $6M/4y contract that will run until he’s 36, so he’s kind of one to avoid. I doubt the Devils will trade their starter just as they enter a potential contention window.

Kinkaid is interesting. He’s somewhere between “meh” and “potential starter” that makes him an interesting get. Again, I think the Devils being contenders (their next best option is Eddie Lack) and him being good makes Kinkaid a tough buy. He’s a pending UFA though, so perhaps they lower the prices. I would also want to see more of him before making a move.