FlamesNation mailbag: Almost the off-season

With a sure-to-be dramatic game seven coming up this week, we’re one game away from the hockey calendar flipping over.

What’s in store for the Calgary Flames in these upcoming weeks?

I’m wary on it.

Kyle Turris had a really bad 2018-19 season, which doesn’t bode well for a guy who’s turning 30 this offseason. His 5v5CF% cratered to 50.56%, down from the 55.70% he had last season in Nashville. Naturally, the CFrel% numbers dropped to, from 5.86% to -2.71%. This is despite starting in the offensive zone 66.90% of the time. To put it briefly, Nashville trusted him in an offensive role, but he really couldn’t do much with it. If that continues, a potential swap of the two players might be a lateral move.

Now, there’s the chance that he just had an off year, and should he bounce back in Calgary to the regular 40-50 point guy he has been in the past, it’s a steal for the Flames. But the team also runs the risk of trading their current expensive problem for a future expensive problem. Knowing normal aging curves, the chance that Turris’ $6M contract goes sour before the 2024 expiry date is extremely high. The team might get one or two good seasons out of him before he starts declining heavily. On the plus side, he’s probably more attractive expansion draft bait, so there is an easier out available, but that’s betting on him having two good enough years to keep his stock high.

So pick your poison: James Neal now, or a more expensive version of him a few years down the road, if he isn’t already dead on arrival.

Based on what we know, it’s definitely Michael Frolik that’s involved, and either one of the first round pick or Sam Bennett.

I think Bennett would be the second piece next to Frolik, as it makes sense for both teams. Minnesota appears to be looking for more than just one NHL option, as they’re also looking at multiple pieces from other interested clubs. The Flames want to clear out salary, so Frolik’s $4.3M and Bennett’s ~$2.5M (as a guess) for Zucker’s $5.5M will save $1.3M.

TJ Brodie’s salary is probably the only one they can take off the books without taking anything significant back. As already mentioned, Frolik will net Zucker, which won’t save that much money.

I elaborated about it last week, but Michael Stone is unlikely to be moved. If the Flames do find a suitor for him, it’s likely that they’re taking back equal money, which would nullify the point of trading Stone. With just one year left at $3.5M, the Flames will either ride it out or buy it out.

I think the only trade to expect is the Zucker deal or any potential Brodie deal. Brad Treliving can, and will, surprise people with his moves, but I feel that the potential trades that have been floating out there make the most sense for the Flames.

To answer the second question, and to touch on Jake’s ideal trade, I’m not sure I see the Flames moving up in the draft. I don’t think this year’s draft is particularly outstanding outside of the top five (and even then, only the top two), and the costs associated are out of the Flames’ price range.

Based on Ryan’s work here, it generally requires a second (the Flames don’t have that) or a third (the Flames do have this) to move up in recent drafts, but only a few spots, and generally not far up the draft order. If the Flames are in love with a prospect that falls far from where he’s projected to go, I could see it happening, but it would have to be someone truly special.

The Flyers also probably aren’t going to trade 11th overall for Brodie, unless the Flames put together a package they can’t say no to, but that would be too much for the Flames.

It’s almost a certainty.

I think part of the reason why Bennett’s name has been floated around in the trade talks is because the Flames believe that either Andrew Mangiapane or Dillon Dube will be able to replace him. Mangiapane’s play late in the year cemented his status as an NHLer next season, barring any complete meltdowns, and Dube is too good to hold down in the minors. Someone has to move, and it’s likely the player that’s going to get more expensive next season during a cap crunch while also not making much progress over the past few seasons.

Even if Bennett winds up staying, I feel that Mangiapane and Dube are probably going to see more ice time regardless. They’ve both looked like sure NHLers in their brief pro careers, and now look ready to actually stick around.