FlamesNation mailbag: the floodgates open

Thank you to the Montreal Canadiens for pushing over the first domino for an offseason that can hopefully produce as many wild trades as their Max Domi for Alex Galchenyuk trade. Perhaps the Flames are involved in a few of those, though not as lopsided.

Shipping out Michael Stone ($3.5M, probably some retained) and T.J. Brodie ($4.65M) opens up a lot of cap space immediately (while potentially bringing back draft assets and maybe a top six forward, but that’s besides the point). Buying out Troy Brouwer ($3M in savings for the next two years) would also open up a bit of cap room and a forward spot. All together, that’s about $11M in room, which might be what it costs to sign John Tavares.

The negative side is that the Flames will still have to add five forwards, four defencemen, and a goalie with a shade under $15M (assuming an $80M cap + the $9.6M existing cap space) in this hypothetical. RFAs like Nick Shore, Mark Jankowski, and Brett Kulak should come cheap enough, and you can probably pencil in Spencer Foo and Andrew Mangiapane, so that might be around $4M-$5M in salary. Rasmus Andersson and one of Oliver Kylington or Juuso Valimaki will be up, so that’s an extra ~$1.5M gone. David Rittich and Jon Gillies should cost about $1M each, and only one of them will be in the NHL, so just an extra $1M on the books.

That’s about half of that $15M already gone, and the Flames kind of didn’t upgrade in any position besides centre. That’s $7.5M to stick with the status quo. Perhaps getting Tavares offsets the need for a top six RW, but the Flames still do not have a top six RW in this hypothetical, and who knows if there’s one to acquire for $7.5M. They’re also putting a lot of trust in AHL kids to solidify the depth, which is not a very safe bet at all.

So basically the downside to making room for Tavares is that you need to fill up the rest of your roster at a reduced rate. Some of that is doable, but you might have to ignore some of the Flames’ more pressing needs.

If you haven’t heard, other July 1, 2016 signing regret Milan Lucic is apparently asking for a trade out of Edmonton. Given his buyout proof contract and low production, the Oilers are happy to comply.

The caveat is that they’re going to trade him for a higher priced yet shorter term player. Corey Perry and Jason Spezza have been floated around as players underperforming relative to what they make (rumours from various internet sources, not official speculation). The Oilers may take on a bit more cash, but with less term (Perry has three years left, Spezza is a UFA after this season), and free up that spot more quickly. Spezza and Perry are also contracts you can buy out, so that’s another factor. I can’t see the Flames taking back a bad contract when Brouwer’s isn’t even that bad relatively speaking. He might earn more than what he’s getting paid, but that’s a contract you can live with if need be.

Lucic also has a better pedigree than Brouwer. A down season for Lucic was 34 points, which is slightly less than Brouwer’s average points per 82 games over his career. Even in his older age, you can bet that Lucic will bounce back a bit. Players don’t just go from consistent 50 point producers to ice cold like he was last season.

None of that is true for Brouwer. He’s not going to bounce back, he is just a declining asset whose best years are far behind him. I would say the same for Lucic too, but he at least had one good season before having a really bad one. The numbers are pointing in another direction, but you can at least sell Lucic as a guy who needs a change of scenery. Brouwer’s numbers indicate that he’s a player past his expiry date, and it’s hard to sell teams on that.

In the end, it’s hard to gauge what exactly GMs value in players (Brandon Bollig was traded for a draft pick this year) but you can probably bet that Brouwer is not the player GMs are interested in. You’re not crazy for thinking it’s possible, though. It was rumored to be close to happening before the season started.

Travis Hamonic might be a second and a third this year. I think being (hypothetically) on the block a year removed from one of the bigger trades of the past season kind of dampens his value. He’s still a high end defenceman in name value, but if the Flames (hypothetically) moved on from him already, he would look like a lemon to other NHL teams.

If you didn’t read Pat’s article, it’s here.

I agree and disagree with Pat on this one. I disagree on the surface level: TJ Brodie is making very reasonable money to pick up 40 points a year and generally be trusted to eat up minutes. Even in a down year, he still put up 32 points and played heavy minutes. A first round pick might be an underpayment for a team desperate enough.

But circumstances matter, which I feel Pat was trying to convey but didn’t quite do so, and that’s what I agree with him on: Brodie won’t get a first round pick at this draft. Teams tend to value their draft picks more around draft time, understandably. Moving up into the first round is much harder at draft time, given that there’s a time limit of literal hours to actually acquire the pick. The team that owns the pick can really put the screws to a potential suitor because the suitor is constrained by hours while the selling team doesn’t have to lose anything. If a trade doesn’t materialize, you still get a first round prospect while your trading partner is left hanging. The onus is on the buying team to put up a package in enough time to get that pick. It may not be fair value, but that’s the reality of trading around draft time.

Imagine if you’re an opposing GM. Brad Treliving comes calling, and he’s dangling Brodie for a first. Knowing the Flames don’t have a first round pick, the balance of power is in your hands. Yeah, you may need a defenceman, but this is a defenceman heavy first round (a various survey of mock drafts sees anywhere from 12 to 17 defencemen selected in the first round. Eight defencemen were selected in the first rounds of the five previous drafts, on average). So you ask for Treliving to sweeten the pot, knowing full well that he also doesn’t have a second or a third. He’s likely going to hang up at that point, because that likely involves multiple NHL assets and a top end prospect.

I also see the inverse being true. If a GM called Treliving asking about Brodie, it’s likely a lowball offer. An opposing GM might bring up Brodie’s struggles and say that they’re not worth the risk of a first round pick (if it’s a particularly smart GM, they might bring up the Hamonic trade and ask Brad how well that went). The best he can do is a second, and knowing that there likely isn’t another suitor asking for a first, that might be the best offer on Treliving’s plate.

This is likely what has been happening behind the scenes, which Treliving has been hinting at in recent radio hits. Pat is absolutely right in that Brodie would not fetch a first round pick at this draft. Any other time, yes. This week? Nope.

I don’t think Sam Bennett would’ve gotten you Alex Galchenyuk. Both Bennett and Domi have gone a bit backwards since their rookie seasons and have been treading water since, but Bennett has been a bottom six option most of the time whereas Domi is somewhere around a second line level.  Domi isn’t as great as Montreal thinks he is, but he’s easier to sell because he actually has some tangible NHL success. If this is Domi’s ceiling as an NHL player, then he’s still a pretty good player.

Bennett, on the other hand, is potential with no results. He has been an underachiever with little hope that he actually gets better except for the hope that he just does. If someone is going to give you a Galchenyuk for Bennett, don’t complain, but it’s unlikely he is viewed the same as Domi.

No. Brady is going to be a top ten pick, which is going to be near impossible to acquire, and the actual reward isn’t that great. Tkachuk the younger is likely going to take more time to reach the NHL, and his early returns suggest that he’s a bit overvalued. He’s certainly a good prospect, but he’s not the sure thing his brother was. There’s a lot more risk in trading up to take Brady. The Flames are locked out of the first round (and second, and third) this year thanks to taking a big risk. Doubt they do it again.

If you’re unfamiliar, Florida’s 2016 second round pick Adam Mascherin refused to sign with the team, and their rights to him expired on Jun. 1. Following that, the time for trading is over. Mascherin is no longer Florida Panthers property and has re-entered the draft. The Flames cannot trade for him (he would’ve been a third round pick at the very least, which uhhhhhhhhh).

Mascherin was a stud when he was available in 2016 and has been a stud ever since. He’s going to be a great mid-round pick for whoever scoops him up, but I doubt he falls below 93 though. Mascherin could likely step into the NHL next year, and that’s something that teams won’t pass on for long. The Flames are either going to have to trade up (even less picks?) or pray. It’s very unlikely.

Well, Treliving’s strengths lie in the later rounds. He’s picked up a fair number of prospects in the later rounds, so I doubt there’s much to worry about. Most of the players in the first round aren’t likely going to help the Flames next season anyways, so it’s not that big of a deal. It would be nice to have a high end prospect, but they’re not going to solve any immediate Flames problem. If Treliving can add an interesting piece or two with the picks he has, it’s a win.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Andrew Mangiapane fills in Tkachuk’s spot on the 3M line (Matthew is the top line RW) and picks up 40 points in his rookie season. If that’s not dark horse enough for you, I’ll say that Dillon Dube is that guy.

Maybe a real dark horse prediction is saying Jon Gillies steals the #1 starting job halfway through the season. I’ll go with that.