For the first draft in some time, Calgary Flames fans are ecstatic about a draft class before seeing any 2024 Flames draftees play their first professional hockey games.

There are many reasons for this, including the number of draft picks made by Calgary this year (10), including 6 picks in the top 100. However, in the two drafts under general manager Craig Conroy, there has been a strategic shift in player selection types which I’m calling ‘Ceiling over Certainty’. The Flames seemed to consistently draft players this year with a higher NHL ceiling, who may be deemed ‘more risky’ selections, as opposed to drafting a “safe” player who may have more certainty of becoming an NHLer.

This article will outline a few examples from the 2024 NHL Draft.

‘Certainty’ Players available:

Calgary started off the 2024 NHL Draft with a clear emphasis on ‘ceiling’ by selecting Zayne Parekh. All descriptions of Parekh revolve around the words “flashy” and “elite”, where he skates and sees the ice as a swift and mobile quarterback, with high-level Offensive Zone (OZ) execution. His NHL future likely falls anywhere between Quinn Hughes and Shayne Gostisbehere, where it is unclear how less time and space in the NHL will affect his play-style that was so effective in junior.

Keep in mind that all of these draft prospects are still in their teens, with many years left in their hockey careers to develop and evolve. Parekh is an exciting prospect to have in your system and meets both the ‘eye test’ and ‘analytics’ schools of thought.

Sam Dickinson and Konsta Helenius are two players that stick out as closer to the ‘certainty’ end of the prospect spectrum because of play-styles that resemble enabling teammates compared to deciding for teammates. As defenders, both Dickinson and Parekh are smart players but each has their own natural ‘hockey sense’. Parekh wants control and wishes that his teammates trust his skillset, while Dickinson plays with more simplicity and displays a conventional ‘coached’ style. If Dickinson is potentially more ‘predictable’ as a teammate but Parekh is potentially more ‘elite’ as a teammate or individual creator, then this distinguishes Calgary’s 2024 drafting preference.

‘Certainty’ Players available:

After already taking multiple forwards in the 2024 NHL Draft, the Flames still continued their ‘Ceiling over Certainty’ trend, taking forward Luke Misa over defenders like Ty Henry and Jared Woolley in the 5th round.

This pick accentuates the strategy of taking players with potential impact NHL futures. Any ‘flaws’ in a player’s build/game that NHL teams typically stray away from (e.g., being 5’10”) did not sway Calgary this year, taking a smaller high-skill forward over two large and strong defenders from the same league (OHL).

The later rounds of the NHL Draft are great times to take chances on these types of players. It is not expected that every 5th Round selection plays NHL games for your club, while it would be great if that were the case. Playing NHL games vs. having potential to be an impact NHL player is a common NHL boardroom debate, and Calgary clearly chose the latter in their 2024 NHL Draft selections, highlighted by selections like Luke Misa.

Overall, the NHL Draft is still a series of educated guesses on young hockey players with the hope that they become NHL players. However, the Flames specifically showed excitement toward players with high ceilings as opposed to ‘certainty’ players.

The Flames’ evolving draft vision is now rooted in trusting their development process and trying to build the top of their lineup through the draft. When considering other options (Trade, Free Agency), building the top of your lineup through the draft may be the least expensive route to get the most years of service out of elite players on your hockey team.

The Flames’ recent trades for Artem Grushnikov and Kevin Bahl show us that they prefer to fill lineup margins through trade and will prioritize elite skill in draft selections. Each time a team passes on a player with a high ceiling, there is a chance that player could suit up for a rival NHL team in the next 10 years and prevent your team’s ability to ultimately win a Stanley Cup. With this thinking in mind, it makes a lot of sense why Calgary took players with the highest ceiling each time they were available in the 2024 NHL Draft.

Not all of these players may turn into what they’re projected to be, but it’s promising for the future of the Calgary Flames to see an evolving draft vision, where fans can feel excited about lottery tickets as opposed to feeling ordinary about gift cards.