“Hockey players are creatures of habit”
If you play hockey, you may relate to that statement. Even if you don’t play hockey, you may hear stories about hockey players who always put their left skate on first or someone like Sidney Crosby who stickhandles through the painted McDonald’s golden arches at every Pittsburgh Penguins home game warm-up.
Some hockey players have routines that are mandatory for their perceived version of success and may falter mentally or performance-wise without these routines, so most of us respect and let these high-level athletes do what makes them feel confident and successful.
With increased success comes increased expectations, and the Calgary Flames have shown at times that they can be a playoff team, humbling the doubters more and more as the season goes on. However, when looking closer at the Flames’ roster and lineups going forward, I am wary. In particular, regarding the Flames this year, I wonder if the idea of ‘habit-oriented hockey players’ has gotten lost in the process of limited player tryouts and lineup switches, potentially preventing consistency, chemistry, and routine for those who may need it in as we look toward what may be considered a ‘playoff push’ for the next 30 games.
Fans and depth charts
This topic begins with fan perceptions of a roster. In a sport like basketball, you have your starting 5, and your bench players, in a game with somewhat of a methodical stop-and-start nature, but it can be straightforward to build depth charts. When thinking about hockey, which is faster, more fluid, and incorporates on-the-fly changes, there are more chances to play with someone you rarely play with than most other high-level sports, and it may be more difficult to rank more players against each other.
As part of this exercise, in the comments below, give me your Flames forward lines and defense pairs that you would like to start in Game 1 of the playoffs. Who is in your top-six? Who is the top defense pair?
It’s fair for an NHL roster not to have all of their lines defined part-way through the season, but Calgary may be missing a piece of their organizational identity when it’s difficult to know who will be on the ice together for both fans and opposing hockey teams. I remember last season when Jonathan Huberdeau was playing on the third line and not playing like his first-line self. Back on the top line this season, the result is night and day. Coincidence?
Lineup on Jan. 27th, 2025 (per Daily Faceoff):
Huberdeau-Kadri-Pelletier
Coleman-Backlund-Coronato
Pospisil-Sarangovich-Kuzmenko
Lomberg-Rooney-Bishop
Hanley-Andersson
Weegar-Miromanov
Bean-Pachal
Vladar
Wolf
Injuries: Mantha, Kirkland, Zary, Bahl
With this version of the Flames lineup (which may not be entirely accurate) in mind, let’s look at a few examples of a lack of habit-building relevant to today’s Flames lineup:
Matt Coronato
Matt Coronato’s game is quite fun: he has good awareness, plays well off of teammates, and shoots a fair bit. He’s been elevated in the lineup this season to over 16 minutes of ice time per game, coupled with great individual advanced stats (53% Expected Goals, 54% Corsi) for what may be his first full NHL season. So far, there seems to be positive stories associated with this young player.
However, keep in mind that Matt Coronato got sent down to the AHL in October for about a week. I’m curious about how long his leash is, but I hope to see more of him in his current role, because stability seems to be important for his on-ice work, understanding what lanes his teammates use so he can set himself up as both a shooting option and a forechecker when needed.
Are you confident that Coronato remains in a middle-six role for the Flames this season?
Martin Pospisil
Martin Pospisil’s game is quite two-faced due to his playstyle. Some games, it’s exciting to see how the power forward navigates the ice and chips in on offense, while other games his style may cross the line.
Is Pospisil a top-six forechecking power forward with some upside that can be an ‘F1’ for a skilled teammate? Or is he a fourth-line grind-oriented body bumper to set the physical tone for a hockey game?
Regardless, Pospisil seems to be a committed hitter, so with some uncertainty about the rest of his game, his ‘floor’ revolves around body contact and an engaged presence. However, his deployment is worrisome, without the ability to build hockey skill-oriented habits with teammates to become his best and most valuable self. It’s difficult to tell if it’s on the player to figure things out themselves or if the inconsistent role might affect his ability to be his best night after night.
Rory Kerins
This one is a recent but sensitive issue, assumed to be focused on player development but confusing in reflection. Rory Kerins was a point-per-game player in the AHL before a Jan. 10 recall and the first NHL opportunity of his career. In the two weeks that Kerins was on the NHL roster, he played 5 NHL games, with 4 assists and an 80% On-Ice Goals For Percentage (4-1). With Jakob Pelletier on the NHL roster as well, the two of them played 32 5v5 minutes together and won those minutes handily. In particular, Calgary had 58% of the shot attempts (Corsi), 58% of the shots on goal, and 51% of the shot quality (Expected Goals) while the two were together on the ice.
Having played together for some of the AHL Calgary Wranglers’ season together, Pelletier and Kerins had built good habits and chemistry in the minors that seemed to carry directly to the NHL level for the first part of Kerins’ brief tenure, with good use of soft space and delicate play down low in the offensive zone, despite both being undersized playmakers.
Calgary lost Walker Duehr on waivers to San Jose recently, so Kerins’ spot on the top line is still there in the AHL, but it’s difficult to gauge what more is needed in the AHL for Kerins, especially with the risk of injury. If Kerins were to get injured in the AHL, you lose all the NHL games he could have played this season and have more of a test, where 4 points in 5 games at face value is difficult to overlook when a player gets demoted after that stat line.
The question remains: where can players like Kerins develop good habits?
Dustin Wolf
Finally, one of the primary stories of this 2024-25 season, was doubted by some until he succeeded. Despite winning at all levels (junior, AHL), after less than 20 NHL games, some were ready to move on from the goalie prospect. While the notion that goalies take unusual development paths may be true, we can use Dustin Wolf (and Coronato for that matter) as examples where more NHL time has led to positive rewards for the individuals and the team. One year removed from uncertainty, Dustin Wolf is a top NHL goaltender. While all prospects are not equal, this message of time and trust should be considered for some of the Flames’ other prospects who have proven their worth in the leagues they’ve been demoted to.
The theme among each of these players is that inconsistent production or opportunity seems to boil down to trust and deployment. It’s difficult to gauge from an outside perspective how each of these special player cases can earn the trust and NHL ice time, but it’s clear that certain players weren’t initially in this season’s roster plan, and there may be some lag on appreciating their strong development.
It reminds me of young people trying to get a job, where you need 3-5 years of experience but you can’t get experience anywhere, so you can’t get a job, so you can’t get experience, etc.
Some may have trouble waiting for success from younger players, but more games in appropriate roles during seasons like these for young players would bode well for the team’s makeup and identity going forward, instead of supplementing the top lines with players who might not be part of the aspiring Stanley Cup-competitive roster in some years down the line.
Moments of stability
Despite all this talk of moving parts and a potential lack of synthesis in some parts of the Flames roster, the following duos have been strong this year:
- Huberdeau-Kadri
- Coleman-Backlund
When Huberdeau and Kadri play together, they win their minutes handily, with 55% of the shot attempts, 54% of the goals, and 52% of the Expected Goals at 5v5. Similarly, when Coleman and Backlund play together, Calgary has 55% of the shot attempts, 58% of the goals, and 54% of the Expected Goals. Having two duos operate smoothly is a great offensive foundation for the Flames, and incorporating younger players onto the wing (e.g., Coronato so far) can help towards the search for stability for the future of the Flames.
What does this mean?
We are a few weeks away from the 4 Nations Face-Off and a two-week break from Flames hockey, but we are nearing the 50-game mark of the 2024-25 season. There were no aspirations to tank from Flames management this season, with players who want to play their best night after night and work towards earning a playoff spot. As part of this process, with some new faces entering the lineup at times in the season, the competitive nature of the organization is partially opposite to a potential youth movement, even with injuries to multiple roster players and some statistical evidence that the young players are doing well.
Conclusion
From a coaching perspective, when the game gets faster, players resort to their habits. The highest level of hockey (NHL) is a great challenge for young players who I presume the organization wants as part of their future. It becomes a delicate mental situation for young players if they do not know if they earned ice time, do not know who they may share the ice with, and do not know if they’re doing the right thing or have an opportunity to build NHL-level habits. This ambiguity must be tough, and successful teams do not transition from the regular season to a potential playoff in a bumpy fashion, so I wonder how the next 30 games of Flames hockey will go.
We can use statistics to inform some of these decisions on which NHL auditions were successful, but ultimately, if trust is not earned, it seems that prospects will stay prospects and certain players won’t get meaningful minutes on a Flames team that should have lineup spots up for grabs.
Whether or not you believe the Flames should be a playoff team, are you confident in the Flames’ development approach this season?
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