The Calgary Flames got a big piece of business done when they extended Matt Coronato to a seven year deal on Saturday, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg in what’s sure to be a busy off-season for the rebuilding club. Coronato was not the only Flame looking for a new deal, the team has several other expiring restricted free agents that they’ll need to deal with this summer, most notably Connor Zary.

The 23 year old Saskatoon native has seen peaks and valleys in his young NHL career since his debut two seasons ago. He has shown offensive flair when healthy, but health has been the question for Zary over the last five months.

The former Kamloops Blazer burst onto the scene in 2023-24, given an opportunity with the big club early on in that season. Zary never looked back after his first NHL call-up and solidified his spot in the lineup as a rookie. His first campaign saw him post encouraging numbers, 34 points in 63 games with loads of creative flashes.

He looked to take another step forward in his sophomore year, but his development was derailed by injuries. He first suffered a knee injury in a scary collision on Jan. 7 against the Anaheim Ducks that held him out for 15 games. He started slow upon his return in late February and played most of March before suffering another lower body injury on Mar. 27 against the Dallas Stars. The latter ailment held him out for the remainder of the season.

He’d posted 10 goals and 12 assists in his 40 games before the initial injury. He then struggled to get back on his feet in 14 contests after returning, registering just five points. His struggles to stay healthy in combination with the Flames’ low offensive output as a whole make it a difficult sample size to judge, and make Zary a challenging player to project.

Zary has totalled 27 goals and 61 points over his 117 games with the Flames thus far and is due for a new deal after the expiration of his entry-level deal this season. Calgary has some flexibility here with Zary, they could extend him to a long term contract like they did Coronato, or opt for a bridge deal between 1-3 years that would keep him under team control as an RFA the next time around.

There are pros and cons to both routes, and it largely comes down to how management views this player. A bridge deal would likely yield a lower AAV, perhaps something in the $3-4.5 million range. Additionally, a short term contract would serve as more of a ‘prove it’ deal and put the onus on Zary to continue to improve his game and earn a larger second contract.

A bridge deal could backfire if Zary excels in the next few seasons and would therefore command a much higher salary upon its expiration, but that’s a nice problem to have. Bridging him may also be the best course of action if management sees his injuries as a serious concern moving forward.

That said, if Craig Conroy and company truly believe Zary can develop into a bona fide top-six forward, then they may be better off opting for a long term deal. Prioritizing term in this negotiation would lock Zary in at an affordable number into or close to his 30s, given that he continues to develop.

A 6-8 year deal worth $5-6.5 million on average would likely be appealing to Zary and his camp. However, as we well know, max term deals in the salary cap era are large commitments, and can hinder a team’s ability to operate under the salary cap. It’s worth noting that the cap will be going up a significant amount over the next few seasons and beyond, but using that as an excuse to continue to go back to the well on long term contracts would be foolish, as it will eventually catch up to you.

The Flames already have a lot of cap dollars tied up into the 2030s, $29 million to be exact, so they should be cautious not to put the cart before the horse here with Zary. Calgary’s healthy stable of prospects will need to be paid at some point in the next few years. Not to mention the kids who haven’t even been drafted yet, some of whom will need deals before a hypothetical 6 to 8 year Zary contract comes off the books.

I’m sure we’d all like to see Zary don the Flaming C for the better part of the next decade, and here’s to hoping that happens. Though there’s certainly reason for Flames’ brass to proceed with caution entering negotiations, as eight years represents an eternity in the hockey world.