If Brayden Pachal keeps playing like he did in the Calgary Flames’ season-opening 6-5 win over the Vancouver Canucks on Wednesday night, he’ll become a top-four defenceman in no time.

Of course, that’s a big “if,” especially considering the Flames were able to pluck Pachal off waivers from the Vegas Golden Knights less than a year ago. But Pachal demonstrated a lot of strong qualities over his 33 games with the Flames to finish the 2023-24 regular season and arguably played his best game as an NHLer at Rogers Arena on Wednesday.

Pachal finished third among all Flames defenders with 18:19 total ice time against the Canucks, including a solid 1:40 on the PK. And, as you’d want to see with a shutdown defenceman out there, very little happened with Pachal on the ice. The Flames surrendered just five shots on goal and 0.58 total expected goals over Pachal’s 15:58 of 5-on-5 ice time.

Without a doubt, Pachal’s most notable sequence on Wednesday occurred in the middle stages of the third period, with the Flames having already tied the game at four and looking to take their first lead of the season. It all started when Canucks forward Nils Höglander beat Flames goaltender Dan Vladar with a nifty backhand shot in tight — as the puck trickled into the Calgary crease, Pachal instinctively knelt down to make a perfect kick save.

Not even 30 seconds later, Pachal set up the go-ahead goal for the Flames at the other end of the rink. Taking a feed from Jake Bean at the right faceoff circle, Pachal surveyed the ice in front of him and found Jonathan Huberdeau on the back door for an easy tap-in. Arturs Silovs didn’t stand a chance.

Pachal only just turned 25 in August. He’s in the second half of the two-year deal he signed with the Golden Knights in 2023, meaning he’s in line for a new contract at the end of the season (most likely as a restricted free agent). And while he may end up peaking as a bottom-pairing guy, Pachal is young and hard-working enough to carve out a niche for himself as a more significant contributor down the line.

During his junior career, Pachal gradually developed into a standout two-way defender with the WHL’s Prince Albert Raiders, ultimately leading the team to a league championship as captain in 2019. The Estevan, Saskatchewan product parlayed that result into an entry-level deal with the Golden Knights, and he even played enough games with the team in the 2022-23 season to get his name on the Stanley Cup.

The Flames have no shortage of promising young defencemen in their organization. If Pachal can’t differentiate himself from the pack to a significant degree over the next few months or so, he might have to go just to make room for the likes of Hunter Brzustewicz, Artem Grushnikov, and Jeremie Poirier to get a legit shot. But if he continues on his current trajectory, Pachal could become a leading candidate to pick up some of the slack if and when the Flames elect to move on from, say, Rasmus Andersson.

For Pachal to exceed expectations this year, he’d need to cement himself as a bona fide second-pairing defenceman. Beyond Andersson and MacKenzie Weegar, there’s no clear-cut hierarchy on the Flames’ blue line.

Pachal, Kevin Bahl, Daniil Miromanov, and Jake Bean will all get legit shots to prove what they can do in a No. 3 or 4 role over extended periods this year. If Pachal can continue suppressing chances at a strong rate while averaging around 21 or 22 minutes of ice time per night, he won’t just exceed expectations — he’ll likely play his way into a pretty lucrative contract, especially if he starts tacking on more points along the way. Pachal is already eligible to sign an extension at any time.

It’s easy to forget that Pachal was a waiver claim. He’s already proven himself capable of being a steady third-pairing guy who can move up the depth chart in a pinch, but with just 63 NHL games under his belt, the 6’2″ righty is still something of an unknown commodity. That said, most Flames fans would probably be more than happy with Pachal playing a full season, scoring around 15 points, and averaging around 18 minutes a night.

If Pachal ends up back on waivers again this season, it’ll be a pretty big downer — after all, he has yet to falter in any truly meaningful way since joining the Flames in February. While it’d represent a pretty big shift from the status quo, Pachal failing to finish the season with the Flames would certainly qualify as him performing below expectations.