Gang, there’s a pretty good chance that the Calgary Flames will remain in the race for a spot in the Stanley Cup playoffs until the final night of the regular season.

In a pretty significant departure from where the hockey establishment expected them to be this season, the Flames have won 26 out of their first 52 games – exactly half – and that has put them in the final Western Conference wild card playoff spot.

While the Flames are not cemented into that spot by any stretch of the imagination, they’re definitely in control of their own destiny with 30 games remaining. Let’s delve into the details!

After Sunday’s games, here’s how things stand:

The Flames are 26-19-7, with 59 points in 52 games for a .567 points percentage.

The Canucks are 23-18-11, with 57 points in 52 games for .548 points percentage.

The Flames are two points up on Vancouver, with games played by each team even. These two teams are far enough ahead of the rest of the Western Conference that the race is essentially just down to them for the last playoff spot.

Simply put: the Flames don’t need to rely on the Canucks’ opponents from here on out. If the Flames register as many points as the Canucks, they’re in. If they register more points than the Canucks, they’re in. If they register one fewer point than the Canucks, they’re in. If they register two fewer points, it goes to tiebreakers (and then it’s anybody’s guess). The Canucks need to capture three more points than the Flames to definitively pass them in the standings.

In short: if the Flames take care of their own business, they’re in.

Here are the games the two clubs have remaining between now and the start of the 4 Nations Face-Off break:

By the break, each club will have played 55 games (and have 27 remaining before the end of the regular season).

All across the hockey-related internet, some pretty smart people have crunched the numbers and built algorithms and formulas to predict the odds for the Flames (and every other NHL club) to qualify for the 2025 Stanley Cup playoffs.

Here are how odds look as of Monday morning.

As we detailed in last week’s rundown, the Canusk have a slightly more favourable schedule than the Flames do, so even with the Flames being ahead in the standings there is a case to be made for Vancouver having more favourable odds to qualify for the playoffs.