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FlamesNation Mailbag: Free agency and the offseason ahead
alt
christian tiberi
Jul 2, 2018, 10:00 EDTUpdated: Jul 2, 2018, 00:30 EDT
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In maybe the biggest UFA period in recent memory, the Flames came out generally better than they have in years before. They got a much expected but safe addition in Derek Ryan, an untested yet promising player in Austin Czarnik, and AHL depth in Dalton Prout, Alan Quine, and Tyler Graovac. Not bad.
So what does it mean? Where do the Flames stand with two months to go before they get to show off their new and hopefully improved selves? What more needs to be done?
If there’s space for them, I would go with Andrew Mangiapane. The kid had an unreal AHL season and is almost certainly destined for NHL success. I’m a big fan of Spencer Foo, but his age and production in the minors suggest that he’s more of a handy fourth liner than an important roster piece. This season should be an indication of where exactly each player is, but my money is on Mangiapane being the bigger factor.
Czarnik isn’t a prospect. He’ll turn 26 this season and has yet to really break into the NHL. At the very least, he’s a great AHLer.
Where he ranks on the Flames is a pretty interesting thing to think about though. He’s listed as a centre, which is a problem when the team is already four deep at that position. The next natural position is RW, where he could factor in sooner rather than later, depending on how camp goes. On paper, he looks better than Curtis Lazar and Troy Brouwer. His two-year, $2.5M contract suggests that the Flames aren’t just bringing him on board to sit down or play in California.
I’m not entirely familiar with Czarnik, but he seems to be an interesting piece the Flames are high on. I think we need to wait until camp to see where exactly he fits in.
The answer is that the youngbloods simply didn’t get it done.
CF%
CFrel%
OZS%
P/60
TOI
Derek Ryan
57.05
3.29
60.45
1.59
12:46
Mark Jankowski
51.17
-3.59
58.92
1.41
11:13
Sam Bennett
52.55
-1.28
59.23
1.41
11:58
Ryan plays the same sheltered third line role as the other two youthful third liners and has much better numbers than them, conventional or analytic. He’s an immediate upgrade on the third line, assuming that’s where he plays all year.
Which is why the Flames targeted him (having Bill Peters helped too, of course). The Flames really needed a boost from their secondary scoring options last season and that didn’t happen. The third line either scored in bursts or not at all, which was a problem when the other lines weren’t clicking. Ryan isn’t going to blow the doors down, but he at least appears to be a steadier contributor in that role, which is what the Flames really need. Perhaps Janko and Bennett will get there some day, but that won’t be for a while.
I wouldn’t necessarily call it growth stunting either. I’m of the belief that it’s not helpful to young players to play them in circumstances that are beyond their ability. If they can find consistency in limited minutes on the fourth line with good linemates, it can be helpful even if they aren’t in the spotlight. Some guys just aren’t ready for the big time right out of the gate, and that’s fine. If you expect that every young gun is going to break out in a top six role, you’re going to be disappointed.
Reasons for confidence:
  • Brodano was a great pairing when it was together. Given their chemistry, they could perhaps seamlessly get back together and shut things down.
  • They have a coach in Peters that loves defensive structure, which could bring them to newer heights.
  • The team has been much improved since the Bob Hartley days which should also help.
Reasons for doubt:
  • That was also three seasons ago, and both men have aged since then. There’s no guarantee that it is as good now as it was then.
  • The legend around Brodano also comes mostly from the 2013-14 season, when they put up a ridiculous 56.25 5v5 CF% together in buried circumstances. After that year, they weren’t close to that number at all. They were still the best pairing on the team, but not to the extent they were in 2013-14, and also not to the extent Gio-Hamilton was for their two seasons together.
  • Brodano was formed out of necessity when the Flames were going through a dark era of defencemen. It’s easy to look like a great pairing when the next men up are Kris Russell and Dennis Wideman. Brodano was certainly a good pairing, but they also had the benefit of being compared against absolute crap.
  • Even when the pairing was together under the Hartley years, there was evidence that TJ Brodie was the weak link. Given that he’s quite clearly been on a downward slope since then, his decline might be more pronounced this upcoming season. There’s the chance Mark Giordano won’t be able to carry him if this is the case.
So basically, there’s a lot of reasons for doubt. Just because something worked in 2015-16 (or 2013-14, depending on how you look at it) doesn’t mean it will work in 2018-19. There is some hope, but that doesn’t mitigate the risk that comes with making the decision to part with Dougie Hamilton before anyone else. It might be a steady option, but not an elite first pairing like it was way back when. Brad Treliving really has to hope that Hanifin-Hamonic is either equally as good to make sure this trade doesn’t blow up in his face.
I think so. The Flames were linked to Patrick Maroon during the 2016 trade deadline, but got outbid by Edmonton. The team has interest, and it could use some winger depth. Maroon has shown that he can be an effective middle six winger (both sides) who can score and be physical. The Flames can be flexible with his deployment, as he can play up and down the roster and on special teams. Maroon also doesn’t appear to be affected by aging yet, and probably won’t command cap and term. He’s a lower risk signing that should be handy during the duration of his potential contract.
Also, I’m all for ex-Oilers joining the Flames, especially one that was as beloved as Maroon. That is always funny.
I don’t think it’s “given up” as much as it is “extremely skeptical.” David Rittich was great in his first few games and terrible in his last few. If you’re going to name him a certain backup, it’s probably better to have more than a 20-game sample of which half of the performances were bad (don’t forget about him stinking it up when returning to Stockton). Ideally, the Flames’ backup will be able to ascend to the starter’s role if need be. If you needed Rittich to do that again, could you trust him?
He’s not getting shooed off the team, but he’s not exactly a shoo-in for the backup job. If the Flames are honest, they should probably give goaltending a serious look before they walk into the preseason. There’s potential for trouble there.
Not necessarily. They could still do it if an arbitration window opens up and the decision goes against the Flames. Elias Lindholm, Jankowski, Garnet Hathaway, Brett Kulak, and Rittich all have arb rights, so it could certainly happen again. But I can’t see them going to arbitration with anyone besides Lindholm, so I still wouldn’t bet on the Bryout happening.
Another reason I think the Bryout won’t happen this year is because of what lies in the distant future.
If you look at the long scope of things, there’s a more promising UFA class in 2019 that’s worth saving your Bryout cap space for. I’m sure there’s a lot that’s going to happen in the next 364 days, but Erik Karlsson, Jordan Eberle, Artemi Panarin, Tyler Seguin, Jeff Skinner, Gustav Nyquist, Wayne Simmonds, Marcus Johansson, and Jakob Silfverberg could all potentially be UFAs. It would be quite silly to have to miss out on one of these names just because you felt you had to grab a name from the 2018 UFA class. As of this writing, the promising names left are James Neal and Maroon. They’re fine on their own, but they aren’t any of those guys who could be available in 2019. Clearing space when you don’t need to while also taking on an additional two years of Troy Brouwer’s contract is not a great idea heading forward.
The UFA class of 2019 aside, they didn’t buy out Brouwer because they’re willing to live with it. He can do minimum damage in a fourth line role (or press box role) for one more year and then get bought out.
Yes, the Flames are definitely looking for muscle. If they were looking at Ryan Reaves, they’re likely going to look at someone else, now that he’s a member of the Golden Knights again. It’s for the best, as the Flames dodged a major bullet with Reaves (apparently they wanted him for three years! Insane!).
Reaves was always going to get overpaid and treated like a valuable part of a team in spite of his long history of being the exact opposite of that. He dresses in the majority of games but doesn’t score, doesn’t kill penalties, and doesn’t play well defensively or offensively. He’s just there. He’ll get into an occasional scrap or take an unnecessary penalty, but for the most part, he is just killing time on the ice. He’s never averaged more than 10 minutes per game no matter where he has gone in his career.
His perceived value is mostly related to a) the Golden Knights just generally shocking everyone, b) playing on a lot of playoff teams, which speaks more to his team’s talent than his individual talent (Brouwer missed the playoffs once before joining Calgary, for example) and c) being a tough guy. He might arguably be the best in being tough, but he’s certainly not skilled in any other aspect of the sport, and the particular one he is skilled in isn’t extremely valuable. He’s a liability in every area but one, and that one is the least important aspect.
Muscle, toughness, grit, whathaveyou was not the Flames’ problem last year. They had regular truculence in their top nine, as seen by Micheal Ferland on the first line, Matthew Tkachuk on the second, and Hathaway on the third (you can make a case for Bennett, too). They signed both Tanner Glass and Luke Gazdic in the same offseason (!!!!). Ryan Lomberg was nearly played as much as Andrew Mangiapane. According to hockeyfights.com, the Flames were second in fighting majors and had two players finish in the top 10 (Hathaway and Travis Hamonic). They finished third in total penalties taken across the entire league. How much more muscle do you need?
It’s like when Hartley came out after the disastrous 2015-16 season and declared that the problem with the Flames, #2 in shot blocking across the entire league, was that they didn’t block enough shots. It’s true that they weren’t the best in that particular category, but they were much further behind in the other categories which actually correlate to winning hockey games. Making the Flames the toughest team in the league does just that: makes them the toughest in the league. Does it score them more goals? Generally no.
Here’s the thing the Flames were missing: scoring. If we stick with Reaves as our target, he picked up 12 points last year, which was the same amount the much beleaguered Matt Stajan picked up, although Reaves played more games. Adding Hathaway to the third line did increase that line’s toughness. Did it increase their offensive output? Briefly, but also not at all when you consider the offence-first role of the third line. These were the reasons the Flames lost hockey games. Only a select few can be as intimidating as Tkachuk and Ferland while also making the opposition pay on the scoresheet. Reaves is not that guy.
If your impetus is replacing Ferland, your priority is to replace the 21 goals and 20 assists he picked up and not just the physical factor. If the Flames sign Maroon, it’s a pretty even swap. You get the offensive production with the toughness. You can get a guy who isn’t typically defined as tough (say, Lindholm) to do the same thing, though.

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