The Calgary Flames will look to avoid a letdown in their first contest back from the holiday break when they square off against a San Jose Sharks side which has lost six consecutive matchups. The Flames are just 4-7-4 on the road this season, but are hanging around in the Wild Card race due to their tremendous record on home ice.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Flames will look to avoid a letdown versus one of the league’s cellar-dwellers after a week-long layoff. We have seen the recipe that the Flames need to follow to find success this season, as they have to play well-structured, urgent hockey to help cover up for a lack of finishing ability.

While the Flames should be able to generate a strong total of offensive chances in this softer matchup, they will need to be careful not to be exposed at the other end of the ice, particularly after a lengthy layoff. The Sharks have become a far more dangerous offensive side than we saw last season, but have struggled of late due to shaky goaltending and tough matchups.

In the month of December, Calgary holds an expected goal share of 45.95%, which ranks 27th in the NHL. It has allowed 28.44 SA/60 in that span.

Jonathan Huberdeau – Nazem Kadri – Martin Pospisil
Yegor Sharangovich – Connor Zary – Jakob Pelletier
Blake Coleman – Mikael Backlund – Matt Coronato
Ryan Lomberg – Kevin Rooney – Walker Duehr

Based on today’s morning skate, it looks as though head coach Ryan Huska will keep the same offensive lines as we saw in the Flames’ matchup versus Chicago last Saturday. It’s certainly not surprising to see Huska keeping the Huberdeau-Kadri-Pospisil unit intact, as the trio has been highly effective of late and should have a good chance to continue their strong recent production in this matchup.

Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a .910 save percentage and 2.80 GAA in 17 appearances this season.

While it’s a little tougher to argue this point right now while they are suffering through an ugly six-game losing skid, the Sharks feel like a much different team this season compared to last when they posted a historically bad -150 goal differential.

Macklin Celebrini has surpassed even the loftier expectations in the early going, as he has sustained a point-per-game pace and driven play heavily in the right direction. William Eklund has also taken significant steps forward, but is likely to remain out of the lineup due to injury in this matchup.

Defender Jake Walman has generated 25 points with a +4 rating in 31 games played, and his excellent production has come with strong underlying results. The fact that Detroit Red Wings GM Steve Yzerman paid to trade him to San Jose made him look silly the day it happened, and continues to look worse with each passing game.

Walman is considered a game-time decision in this matchup due to a lower-body injury.

The Sharks are just 2-8-1 in the month of December, but could be a slightly more formidable opponent than that mark suggests. They have played a notably difficult schedule this month, and hold a respectable 47.75% expected goal share.

Trading away goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood to Colorado in exchange for Alexandar Georgiev has been a key reason for the team’s recent dive in form after a scrappy month of November. Georgiev holds a -11.4 GSAx (second-worst in NHL), and .872 save percentage.

Unfortunately for the Flames, the Sharks started Georgiev last night versus Vegas, so we will see highly touted goaltending prsopect Yaroslav Askarov make his fifth start of the season in this matchup. Askarov holds a +0.5 GSAx and .909 save percentage in his first four games of the year.

While the Sharks enter in the midst of an ugly six-game losing streak and are playing night two of a back-to-back, the Flames can’t look past this matchup or it could end being a disappointing loss. All of the Sharks’ recent losses have been competitive games, and have mainly come against teams that are currently in excellent form.

A number of the Sharks’ recent losses came due to the horrid play of Georgiev in goal, but they will have a superior option in Askarov playing in this matchup.

While the Flames will win this game more often than not, I think their chances are overvalued at -175 and see value backing San Jose to upset at +140 or longer.