<p>The Calgary Flames will look to bounce back from an ugly 6-3 loss versus the Toronto Maple Leafs when they host Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday night.</p>
<p>While it might not be overly realistic for the Flames to catch the Avalanche, they are just five points back of the Avs entering this matchup holding two games in hand. Colorado has struggled to a record of 4-5-1 over its last ten games, and is currently icing arguably the league&#8217;s most top-heavy roster.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.</p>
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<h2 class="mb-5 text-2xl font-bold">Avalanche vs. Flames odds</h2>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;">Avalanche Moneyline odds</td>
<td style="width: 50%;">-159</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;">Flames Moneyline odds</td>
<td style="width: 50%;">+143</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;">Puck Line odds</td>
<td style="width: 50%;">Avalanche -1.5 (+159), Flames +1.5 (-181)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;">Game Total</td>
<td style="width: 50%;">6 Goals (Over -102, Under -111)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>Odds courtesy of Pinnacle and are subject to change.</em></p>
<h2><strong>Colorado Avalanche</strong></h2>
<p>This matchup will mark Colorado&#8217;s seventh matchup since it traded away superstar Mikko Rantanen to Carolina for Martin Necas and Jack Drury. While the Avalanche are just 3-3-0 since the trade, Necas and Drury have arguably both been better than expected.</p>
<p>The Avalanche enter this matchup off of a 3-0 loss to the Vancouver Canucks, a game in which Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko had his best performance of the season and was named First Star of the game. While the Avs were snake-bitten on their quality scoring chances and could have fared better, the game was an accurate depiction of the team&#8217;s current flaws.</p>
<p>The Avalanche dominated when it&#8217;s top line of MacKinnon, Necas, and Artturi Lehkonen were on the ice versus Vancouver, especially when the trio skated alongside Cale Makar and Devon Toews. In 13:27 minutes together, the Avs&#8217; top line generated 27 shot attempts, and outshot the Canucks 14-6.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550" data-dnt="true">
<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Avs top line was responsible for: </p>
<p>&#8211; 21 of their 63 zone entries<br />&#8211; 15 of their 32 controlled entries<br />&#8211; 12 of their 15 scoring chances<br />&#8211; 22 of their 35 shots</p>
<p>Demko 🧱</p>
<p>Also a good game from the Canucks forward corps to give Demko some support. <a href="https://t.co/4wNfvBrr7J">pic.twitter.com/4wNfvBrr7J</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Corey Sznajder (@ShutdownLine) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShutdownLine/status/1887275892994375786?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 5, 2025</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The rest of Colorado&#8217;s roster did not fare nearly as well however, particularly the second line of Jonathan Drouin, Casey Mittelstadt and Juuso Parssinen. The team&#8217;s offensive depth will receive a huge boost when Valeri Nichushkin returns from injury after the 4 Nations Face-Off, but is a large concern for the time being.</p>
<p>The team&#8217;s lack of depth certainly played a large role in GM Joe Sakic&#8217;s decision to trade away Rantanen, who will be commanding a massive salary this offseason.</p>
<p>Rantanen has put up 683 points in 624 career games, and was a huge piece of the 2021-22 Stanley Cup winning roster. He has spent the vast majority of his minutes playing alongside MacKinnon, Makar and Toews throughout his career, and has not necessarily proven the ability to carry his own line.</p>
<p>While Necas certainly does not bring the same elite goal-scoring ability as Rantanen, he is an excellent play-driver who had been highly productive playing mainly on the Hurricanes second line this season, and is locked in to a team-friendly deal until the end of next season.</p>
<p>In 44.8 minutes together Necas, MacKinnon and Lehkonen have generated 5.09 xGF/60, and hold a 65.5% expected goal share. To look at a slightly wider sample, the Avs lined Necas up with Drouin and MacKinnon in his first three matchups with the team, and that trio held a comparably dominant 63.6% expected goal share in 46.3 minutes together.</p>
<p>Shutdown defender Josh Manson was injured in Tuesday&#8217;s contest, and is considered day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Manson&#8217;s absence could allow former Flame Oliver Kylington to draw back into the lineup.</p>
<p>Mackenzie Blackwood is expected to get the start in goal in this matchup. Blackwood has been excellent in his brief tenure with the team, after posting strong results behind a horrible San Jose Sharks defence earlier in the year. He holds a +14.2 GSAx rating and .917 save percentage in 39 games played this season.</p>
<h2><strong>Calgary Flames</strong></h2>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard">After a solid start to the game, the Flames fell apart in the second and third period versus Toronto, making life far too easy for the Leafs&#8217; elite offensive stars. While the Leafs are among the betting favourites to win the Stanley Cup this season, it was clear that Tuesday&#8217;s result came down more to a sloppy, disorganized performance from head coach Ryan Huska&#8217;s side.</div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard"></div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard">While it was not a good night for a number of Flames defenders, Tyson Barrie had a particularly tough outing and looks to be coming out of Thursday&#8217;s lineup as a result. Ilya Solovyov has been recalled from the AHL ahead of this matchup, and will get a well-deserved opportunity on a blue line that has struggled since Kevin Bahl&#8217;s injury.</div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard"></div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard">With Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee looking like solid acquisitions thus far, the Flames&#8217; offensive depth currently looks to be far more of a strength than it was earlier in the year. It&#8217;s unlikely the Flames will entirely keep the Avs&#8217; superstars in check, and their quality second and third lines will need to provide an edge in this matchup.</div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard"></div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard">Over the last 10 games, the Flames have allowed 3.10 goals against per game, and have allowed 29.64 shots against per 60. Dustin Wolf continues to prove his ability to steal games in which the Flames don&#8217;t carry much of the overall run of play, but the team offered up far too many complete defensive breakdowns versus the Leafs for any goalie to find success.</div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard"></div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard">At the time of writing, the Flames have not yet confirmed a starting goaltender, but it wouldn&#8217;t be shocking to see this start go to Dan Vladar after his strong outing versus the Seattle Kraken on Sunday.</div>
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<h2><strong>Best bets for Avalanche vs. Flames</strong></h2>
<p>The Flames will surely be heavily focused on doing a much better job defensively entering this matchup. If they can keep the Avalanche&#8217;s top stars somewhat in check, they should have a decent chance of stealing this game, as it is reasonable to believe the Flames can win the rest of the minutes.</p>
<p>While I don&#8217;t hate the chances of the Flames making this into a highly-competitive matchup, I do believe we will see Colorado&#8217;s top stars break through with some offence after generating a ton of chances versus the Canucks.</p>
<p>Necas has four assists in his six games with the Avalanche, and if anything that mark is lower than anyone watching the games would expect. He continues to be a zone-entry machine, and has done a great job of making dangerous passes to create quality scoring chances.</p>
<p>Chances are the Avs&#8217; top line will play huge minutes in this matchup once again, and taking better numbers in the prop market to target Necas looks to be a solid way to utilize a top-line which has been excellent. At -118, I see value backing Necas to record an assist and would bet it down to -123.</p>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard">
<p><strong>Best bet: Martin Necas Over 0.5 Assists -118 (Pinnacle, Play to -123)</strong></p>
</div>


Colorado Avalanche forward Martin Necas (88) handles the puck against the Colorado Avalanche in the second period at Rogers Arena.

The Calgary Flames will look to bounce back from an ugly 6-3 loss versus the Toronto Maple Leafs when they host Nathan MacKinnon and the Colorado Avalanche on Thursday night.

While it might not be overly realistic for the Flames to catch the Avalanche, they are just five points back of the Avs entering this matchup holding two games in hand. Colorado has struggled to a record of 4-5-1 over its last ten games, and is currently icing arguably the league's most top-heavy roster.

I'll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.
<div class="bam-inline-promotion" data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31841" data-context="web-content-promocard"></div>
<h2 class="mb-5 text-2xl font-bold">Avalanche vs. Flames odds</h2>
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;" border="1">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;">Avalanche Moneyline odds</td>
<td style="width: 50%;">-159</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;">Flames Moneyline odds</td>
<td style="width: 50%;">+143</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;">Puck Line odds</td>
<td style="width: 50%;">Avalanche -1.5 (+159), Flames +1.5 (-181)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="width: 50%;">Game Total</td>
<td style="width: 50%;">6 Goals (Over -102, Under -111)</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<em>Odds courtesy of Pinnacle and are subject to change.</em>
<h2><strong>Colorado Avalanche</strong></h2>
This matchup will mark Colorado's seventh matchup since it traded away superstar Mikko Rantanen to Carolina for Martin Necas and Jack Drury. While the Avalanche are just 3-3-0 since the trade, Necas and Drury have arguably both been better than expected.

The Avalanche enter this matchup off of a 3-0 loss to the Vancouver Canucks, a game in which Canucks goaltender Thatcher Demko had his best performance of the season and was named First Star of the game. While the Avs were snake-bitten on their quality scoring chances and could have fared better, the game was an accurate depiction of the team's current flaws.

The Avalanche dominated when it's top line of MacKinnon, Necas, and Artturi Lehkonen were on the ice versus Vancouver, especially when the trio skated alongside Cale Makar and Devon Toews. In 13:27 minutes together, the Avs' top line generated 27 shot attempts, and outshot the Canucks 14-6.

[embed]https://twitter.com/shutdownline/status/1887275892994375786?s=51&t=jnkCQzfXiGyXqCWVEtGobg[/embed]

The rest of Colorado's roster did not fare nearly as well however, particularly the second line of Jonathan Drouin, Casey Mittelstadt and Juuso Parssinen. The team's offensive depth will receive a huge boost when Valeri Nichushkin returns from injury after the 4 Nations Face-Off, but is a large concern for the time being.

The team's lack of depth certainly played a large role in GM Joe Sakic's decision to trade away Rantanen, who will be commanding a massive salary this offseason.

Rantanen has put up 683 points in 624 career games, and was a huge piece of the 2021-22 Stanley Cup winning roster. He has spent the vast majority of his minutes playing alongside MacKinnon, Makar and Toews throughout his career, and has not necessarily proven the ability to carry his own line.

While Necas certainly does not bring the same elite goal-scoring ability as Rantanen, he is an excellent play-driver who had been highly productive playing mainly on the Hurricanes second line this season, and is locked in to a team-friendly deal until the end of next season.

In 44.8 minutes together Necas, MacKinnon and Lehkonen have generated 5.09 xGF/60, and hold a 65.5% expected goal share. To look at a slightly wider sample, the Avs lined Necas up with Drouin and MacKinnon in his first three matchups with the team, and that trio held a comparably dominant 63.6% expected goal share in 46.3 minutes together.

Shutdown defender Josh Manson was injured in Tuesday's contest, and is considered day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Manson's absence could allow former Flame Oliver Kylington to draw back into the lineup.

Mackenzie Blackwood is expected to get the start in goal in this matchup. Blackwood has been excellent in his brief tenure with the team, after posting strong results behind a horrible San Jose Sharks defence earlier in the year. He holds a +14.2 GSAx rating and .917 save percentage in 39 games played this season.
<h2><strong>Calgary Flames</strong></h2>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard">After a solid start to the game, the Flames fell apart in the second and third period versus Toronto, making life far too easy for the Leafs' elite offensive stars. While the Leafs are among the betting favourites to win the Stanley Cup this season, it was clear that Tuesday's result came down more to a sloppy, disorganized performance from head coach Ryan Huska's side.</div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard"></div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard">While it was not a good night for a number of Flames defenders, Tyson Barrie had a particularly tough outing and looks to be coming out of Thursday's lineup as a result. Ilya Solovyov has been recalled from the AHL ahead of this matchup, and will get a well-deserved opportunity on a blue line that has struggled since Kevin Bahl's injury.</div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard"></div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard">With Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee looking like solid acquisitions thus far, the Flames' offensive depth currently looks to be far more of a strength than it was earlier in the year. It's unlikely the Flames will entirely keep the Avs' superstars in check, and their quality second and third lines will need to provide an edge in this matchup.</div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard"></div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard">Over the last 10 games, the Flames have allowed 3.10 goals against per game, and have allowed 29.64 shots against per 60. Dustin Wolf continues to prove his ability to steal games in which the Flames don't carry much of the overall run of play, but the team offered up far too many complete defensive breakdowns versus the Leafs for any goalie to find success.</div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard"></div>
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard">At the time of writing, the Flames have not yet confirmed a starting goaltender, but it wouldn't be shocking to see this start go to Dan Vladar after his strong outing versus the Seattle Kraken on Sunday.</div>
<div class="bam-inline-promotion" data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard"></div>
<h2><strong>Best bets for Avalanche vs. Flames</strong></h2>
The Flames will surely be heavily focused on doing a much better job defensively entering this matchup. If they can keep the Avalanche's top stars somewhat in check, they should have a decent chance of stealing this game, as it is reasonable to believe the Flames can win the rest of the minutes.

While I don't hate the chances of the Flames making this into a highly-competitive matchup, I do believe we will see Colorado's top stars break through with some offence after generating a ton of chances versus the Canucks.

Necas has four assists in his six games with the Avalanche, and if anything that mark is lower than anyone watching the games would expect. He continues to be a zone-entry machine, and has done a great job of making dangerous passes to create quality scoring chances.

Chances are the Avs' top line will play huge minutes in this matchup once again, and taking better numbers in the prop market to target Necas looks to be a solid way to utilize a top-line which has been excellent. At -118, I see value backing Necas to record an assist and would bet it down to -123.
<div data-property-id="328" data-promotion-id="31842" data-context="web-content-promocard">

<strong>Best bet: Martin Necas Over 0.5 Assists -118 (Pinnacle, Play to -123)</strong>

</div>

NHL odds, betting preview (Feb. 6): Avalanche vs. Flames predictions

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