The Calgary Flames will look to enter the 4 Nations Face-Off break on a high note when they host the 28th-ranked Seattle Kraken on Saturday evening.

The Flames were able to earn a 3-2 win as underdogs when these teams met last Sunday in Seattle while playing night two of a back-to-back with backup goaltender Dan Vladar in between the pipes.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

It’s been a highly disappointing start to the season for the Kraken, who were looking to find better results after a poor 2023-24 campaign, which ultimately led to the dismissal of former head coach Dave Hakstol. With a record of 23-33 straight-up, betting the Kraken in each game would yield a -16.1% ROI, which is the fourth-worst mark in the NHL this season.

Last season under Hakstol, the Kraken played a highly conservative style, and netted just 2.76 goals per game. New head coach Dan Bylsma entered the year looking to lead the team to more competent offensive results, and the team has improved slightly from an offensive perspective averaging 2.95 goals per game this season.

However playing a more offensive style has come at a cost, as the Kraken have become one of the league’s worst defensive sides after being a solid defensive team last season. Over the entirety of the year, the Kraken have allowed 3.18 goals against per game, and have been in even worse form defensively of late. Over the last 10 games, the Kraken hold an xGA/60 of 3.70, and have allowed 31.72 shots against per 60.

Chandler Stephenson has struggled mightily this season, yet continues to earn plenty of ice time as the organization seems unwilling to accept that it made a bad bet in free agency, signing the 31-year-old to a $6.2 million cap hit. Stephenson holds a -5.5 expected Goals Above Replacement rating per EvolvingHockey this season.

The Kraken have found much better results in games started by Joey Daccord this season, as former backup goaltender Philipp Grubauer played to a league-worst -17.5 GSAx rating prior to being sent to Coachella Valley of the AHL.

Daccord holds a record of 18-14-3, including a loss versus the Flames when these teams faced off on Sunday. He holds a .915 save percentage and +20.4 GSAx rating this season, and is expected to start in this matchup.

While the quality of competition faced was fierce, the Flames certainly shouldn’t feel remotely proud of their play in the first two games of this homestand, which came against the Toronto Maple Leafs and Colorado Avalanche. The Flames allowed 10 goals against in the two games combined, and a whopping total of 32 high-danger chances.

At this point, it’s pretty clear that head coach Ryan Huska’s Flames won’t be blowing many teams out of the water offensively this season, and that they had overachieved expectations by playing a high-spirited, well-organized brand of hockey. While Huska’s side has not often owned the majority of the play this season, they have often done a decent job of limiting opponents to the kind of chances that Dustin Wolf can handle.

This matchup provides the Flames with a good opportunity to get right from a defensive perspective, though even the Kraken will surely find offensive success if Calgary plays anything like it did in the first two games of this homestand.

The Flames will take the ice with a considerably different looking lineup in this matchup. Matt Coronato has been elevated to play on the top line alongside Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau, offering a well-deserved chance to a player who possesses arguably the best shot on the team, and who has been defensively responsible this season.

Dryden Hunt has been recalled from the AHL for this matchup, and will take over Coronato’s role alongside Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman. Backlund has not looked right over the last several matchups, and it will be interesting to see if the Flames captain comes out of what may be a much-needed break in better form.

Flames newcomers Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee will pair up with Yegor Sharangovich on the third line, which is certainly an intriguing combination for a team in desperate need of an offensive boost.

Over the last 10 games, the Flames hold an expected goal share of 44.39 percent, and have allowed 3.81 xGA/60, which is the third-worst mark in the league in that span. The Flames defensive core has been surprisingly effective throughout most of this campaign, but it has looked much more flawed of late.

Kevin Bahl’s absence from the top pair has been highly notable, as he was playing over 20 minutes a night at the time of his injury, and had been very steady in those minutes. Rasmus Andersson has been struggling mightily over the last month of play, and the Flames certainly need better play defensively from the 28-year-old defender moving forward.

Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. While Wolf allowed nine goals against in his starts versus Toronto and Colorado, his side was terrible in front of him and his shaky stats shouldn’t warrant much concern at this point. In 32 appearances this season, Wolf holds a +10.7 GSAx rating and .913 save percentage.

The Flames have a good opportunity to earn two desperately needed points from this matchup, as they host a Kraken side that has been in shaky form defensively of late.

Oddsmakers continue to believe the Kraken are a more formidable side than their record suggests, and their underlying results and goal differential are comparable to that of the Flames. Calgary has done a good job of finding ways to win close matchups overall this season, while Seattle has not fared nearly as well in single-goal decisions.

I’d lean with the Flames in terms of a side at -128, but see more value looking towards Coronato in the prop market, as he gets an opportunity to play on the top line. Coronato possesses arguably the best shot on the team, and will hopefully get more quality looks playing alongside the team’s two most productive forwards.

At +220 or better, I see value backing Coronato to hit the 15-goal mark in Saturday’s matchup, as he takes on a Kraken side which has allowed 3.30 goals against over the last 20 games.