The Calgary Flames extended their winning streak to three games Monday night in Chicago, moving back into sole possession of the Western Conference’s final playoff spot with a convincing 5-2 victory, and now they’ll turn their attention to the St. Louis Blues on Tuesday.

The Flames are heavy underdogs versus the Blues, based partially upon the expectation that Dan Vladar (3.08 GAA, .888 SV%) will get the start in the second half of the back-to-back.

The Blues will be looking to respond to a 2-1 loss in their last matchup versus the Columbus Blue Jackets. They are 5-4-1 over the last 10 games and 9-10-1 on home ice this season.

Flames head coach Ryan Huska made the safe decision in opting to start Dustin Wolf Monday night in Chicago in an attempt to make sure his side garnered two points from this back-to-back.

In games started by Wolf, the Flames are winning at an 113-point pace. His save percentage now sits .916, which ranks seventh in the league among goaltenders to make 15 or more starts. Despite his fantastic play, Wolf is still priced as a massive underdog in a highly competitive Calder Trophy race at 45/1. The Flames may opt to hand Wolf a higher share of the starts down the stretch if they remain in playoff contention, which could make him an interesting bet to win the Calder at such long odds.

Dan Vladar has been drastically less effective with an .888 save percentage and -2.9 GSAx in 19 games played. The Flames are 6-13 straight-up when Vladar plays, and betting them in each of those contests would mean a -24.2% ROI. It’s possible the organization’s plan in keeping the starts so even early on was to boost Vladar’s stock in the trade market, but that plan likely is not going to pan out as once desired given Vladar’s well below average results.

Rory Kerins put up two assists in his NHL debut Monday, and added an offensive spark to a bottom-six which has been highly unproductive this season.

Calgary’s fourth line of Ryan Lomberg, Kevin Rooney, and Walker Duehr was out-chanced once again Monday. In 58.8 minutes together, they have been outscored 3-0, and hold an expected goal share of 37.8%. While Andrei Kuzmenko has been highly disappointing this season, it would still make sense to see him draw back into the lineup in this back-to-back spot.

The Flames’ second line of Matt Coronato, Blake Coleman, and Mikael Backlund was dominant once again Monday. Calgary held an 11-4 edge in shots on goal with the trio on the ice, and were rewarded with another even-strength goal. In 249.3 minutes together, Coronato, Coleman, and Backlund have outscored opponents 13-5 this season.

Over the last nine games, Coronato has had 55 shot attempts and poured 32 shots on target.

Over the last 10 games, the Flames have played to a 51.35% expected goal share, and generated 30.34 shots for per 60, which is the fifth-highest mark in the NHL in that span.

Over the last two seasons we have seen a number of teams enjoy a new-coach bounce, so it shouldn’t be overly surprising that list includes the Blues, who hired a highly successful bench boss in Jim Montgomery on November 24th. The Blues were 9-12-1 when they hired Montgomery and have gone an 11-8-1 run since, scoring 3.27 goals per game while allowing 2.68 goals against.

While the Blues have come down to earth of late with a record of just 5-4-1 in their last 10 games, they hold an excellent expected goal share of 60.89% in those matchups.

The Blues’ defensive core has been a clear weakness over the last two seasons, but the addition of Cam Fowler from Anaheim on December 13th has helped to alleviate those concerns to some extent. Fowler has put up 10 points in 14 games since being acquired, and holds a 51.1% expected goal share in 183.8 minutes playing alongside Colton Parayko on the top pair.

Blues fans surely are pleased with GM Doug Armstrong’s decision to steal both Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway from the Edmonton Oilers this offseason via offer sheet, and both have played better than most would have expected. Holloway, in particular, has been in excellent form skating on the second line alongside Jordan Kyrou and Brayden Schenn. In 173.1 minutes together, the trio has generated 3.26 xGF/60 and outscored opponents by a margin of 10-5.

Jordan Binnington has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds an .897 save percentage and 2.85 GAA in 31 appearances this season.

This is a highly favourable spot for the Blues, who have a rest advantage and will likely take on Vladar instead of Wolf. I noted in yesterday’s piece that backing the Blues early before the prices moved was the right way to attack this matchup, and the price has been adjusted as expected to the current number of -163.

At -163, I still lean with the Blues, but believe there is a little more value left with two player props.

Holloway has been on fire recently playing alongside arguably the team’s most talented forward in Kyrou. He has 13 points over the last nine games, and will have a good opportunity to stay hot in this matchup with Vladar in goal and the Flames playing back-to-back. At -125 or better, there is value backing Holloway to record a point in this matchup.

Despite somewhat of a tough-luck loss backing Coronato to score in Monday’s game, I’m happy to back him for a third straight game in the prop market. Coronato’s play stood out once again Monday with an assist and four shots on goal, and the Flames; second line continues to do a great job generating scoring chances. He’s also getting plenty of touches on the team’s top power-play unit. At +120, I see value backing Coronato to record three shots on goal in this matchup.