Calgary has allowed just one goal over the last two games, and earned important victories over the Islanders and Predators. It is now sitting second in the Pacific Division, and only a single point behind Vegas for the division lead.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

It’s been a familiar start to the season for the Rangers, who have followed up last season’s Presidents’ Trophy campaign with a 12-4-1 start. They hold an expected goal share of 51.92% and hold the leagues fourth worst expected goals against rating.

They hold the leagues highest team save percentage of .920, and rank ninth in shooting percentage at 11.5%. Both of those marks suggest some regression could be on the horizon, however the Rangers posted nearly identical numbers over the entirety of last season finishing fifth in team save percentage and ninth in shooting percentage.

Igor Shesterkin is arguably the best goaltender in the world, and has proven over a large sample that this level of dominance is not unsustainable. It’s unclear whether it will be Shesterkin or Jonathan Quick in goal for New York in this matchup, but both have been excellent.

After posting a surprisingly strong .911 save % and +9.8 GSAx last year, Quick has put up a +8.5 GSAx and .970 save % this year, though he has garnered the softer starts as backups generally tend to do.

Led by stars such as Artemi Panarin and Adam Fox, the Rangers do a better than average job of creating shots after passes through the royal road, and complete a lot of passes into the slot. They have outscored their expected rates in each of the last three seasons as a result.

While 14 points in 17 games is solid production, Mika Zibanejad has drawn plenty of criticism for his shaky start to the season, and his role as a top-six centre has been one reason New York is allowing plenty of chances against.

The Rangers second line of Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Reilly Smith was dominant versus Vancouver though, and could be turning the corner. Zibanejad tallied a goal and assist in that matchup, and was named the games third star.

The Flames earned another hard-fought victory Tuesday versus the Islanders. They led 14-9 in high danger chances in that matchup, and received another excellent performance from Dustin Wolf, who stopped 28-of-29 shots faced.

In the month of November Calgary holds an expected goal share of 48.55%, but has owned the key moments of a number of games to help earn a 5-2-2 record.

It continues to look like the Flames are walking a tight line with their current process though, especially if they don’t start receiving more notable offensive contributions from key skaters like Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri. Over the last ten games the Flames have scored just 2.20 goals per game.

Dustin Wolf has been spectacular of late to help cover the Flames lack of production. If the season ended today he would certainly be deserving of a Calder nomination, and his price to win the Calder has dropped from +2500 to +750 over the last week of action.

Wolf has been confirmed as the Flames starter in this matchup, and is rightfully beginning to garner a true starters share of the games. He holds a .925 save % and 2.36 GAA in 10 appearances this season.

The Rangers have been a highly profitable team to back over the last two regular seasons (+14 % ROI). Due to their modest underlying profile, sharper bettors have tended to fade them consistently based on the belief they aren’t quite as strong as their record suggests.

That seems to be the case entering this matchup, as the Rangers opened at -170 but has trended down to -155. Over a large sample of games they proven that their combination of elite goaltending and clinical finishing ability allows them to win a ton of games, even if they aren’t owning a ton of the overall play.

The Rangers would be my lean in terms of a side, as I don’t see much value backing the Flames at this kind of number versus a team that is 67-27-5 over the last two regular seasons.

This does look like a good spot to buy on Zibanejad in the prop markets. For the majority of the last three seasons his shot prop has been set at 2.5 with the over in the -135 range, while his goal price has generally been well below +200.

Thanks to his horrid start to this year, the prices have gotten much better. Zibanejad and Kreider were excellent versus the Canucks last time out though, and Zibanejad seems to be regaining his confidence.

At the prices being offered this is a good spot to back a continued return to form from Zibanejad, versus a Flames side that is allowing a lot of chances against.