The Calgary Flames will look to build on a spectacular four game home-stand, in which they held a record of 4-0-0 and allowed just six goals against. Calgary has been far less dominant on the road this season though, as it holds a record of just 3-3-3 entering this match-up.

The Ottawa Senators have been one of the league’s greater disappointments, and after dropping their fifth straight match-up Saturday versus the Canucks sit second to last in the Eastern Conference. Their underlying numbers suggest better results could be on the horizon, however that was the case throughout most of last season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Flames put together another highly impressive performance Saturday and earned a 4-3 shootout victory over the Wild. The Flames allowed only 23 shots on goal and 12 high danger chances despite playing the majority of the contest with a lead.

As Ryan Pike outlined in his article reviewing the Flames opening quarter of the season, Calgary’s overall underlying profile is pretty modest. It has covered that up by winning the majority of match-ups in close fashion with timely scoring and elite goaltending, and eventually that combination won’t lead to such a dominant record.

However, it was pretty obvious that the Flames cleaned up their process considerably during their home-stand and it will be interesting to see if that continues on this four game road trip. Over the last four games the Flames have played to a 55.72% expected goal share, and allowed only 2.81 xGA/60.

An inability to generating meaningful offensive outputs remains a concern, but if the Flames continue to defend as they have recently they could continue to manage strong results despite their offensive shortcomings. They rank 23rd in goals for per game this season, but hold the leagues eighth best GAA.

A win in either of their two games would guarantee the Flames are in a playoff spot at the upcoming American Thanksgiving benchmark. Including tonight’s match-up, they are about to play six straight games versus non-playoff teams. Ryan Huska deserves plenty of credit for what he has done with this team, and I think this is an interesting time to revisit his odds in the Jack Adams award race.

Anthony Mantha remains the only skater on the IR.

Wolf is expected to get the start after resting Saturday versus Minnesota. He holds a .926 save % and 2.33 GAA in 11 appearances this season.

Concerns that the Senators lengthy rebuild is never going to yield meaningful results have to be growing around the organization, as they are just 8-11-1 and now heavily favoured to miss the playoffs for an eighth consecutive season.

There are some arguments as to why it may not be a lost season in Ottawa just yet, and the Sens’ are about to into a notably soft patch in the schedule. This recent run of ugly results could be forgotten about with a dominant stretch of play in those match-ups, but if that isn’t the case we could certainly see Steve Staios look to make some significant changes in the near future.

In the month of November the Senators have scored on just 6.56% of shots, and received a fifth worst save percentage of .876. While there are countless intricacies in hockey which can lead to teams posting a higher or lower than average PDO, a mark of 94.1 is almost never sustained over a large sample.

The Senators hold a 53.34% expected goal share in November, and have limited opponents to just 25.5 shots per game.

It’s possible that Travis Green wasn’t exactly the ideal coach for the job, and his sides haven’t exactly proven that he is an elite offensive coach. Still, the Senators have some legitimate scoring threats littered in the top nine and they should be able to finish chances at a league average rate.

The Senators suffered a tough loss in Saturday’s match-up, as Artem Zub suffered a fractured foot. Zub was playing on the top pairing, and this will likely mean more minutes for former Flames Travis Hamonic, who has struggled mightily this season.

Anton Forsberg has been confirmed as the Sens’ starting goaltender in this match-up. He has played to a .903 save % and 2.76 GAA in eight appearances this season.

While the Flames had some favourable bounces to play to such a strong record in the early part of October, they have clearly elevated their game recently. They played a much more defensively sound brand of hockey throughout their home-stand, and continue to receive excellent play from Wolf, who is expected to start in this match-up.

The Jack Adams race is highly competitive this year, and names like Spencer Carbery and Scott Arniel are worthy favourites. If the Flames keep playing at the level we have seen recently much longer though, the price to back Huska in the Jack Adams race is going to plummet and Calgary is entering a soft stretch of the schedule.

If you’re a Flames fan looking for a good way to get invested in their surprisingly excellent start, backing Huska to win coach of the year at +1800 provides a great way to do so.

The Senators have played better than their record suggests, and if they start to receive better goaltending and finish at a league average rate their results should stabilize. They are entering a soft patch in the schedule, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them put together an excellent stretch.

Still, the idea that the Sens’ are due for better is well accounted for by their -160 price tag in this match-up, and the loss of Zub could prove highly concerning.

A bet on the under 6 at -120 does look enticing though. The Sens’ have done an excellent job of limiting opponents chances, and in a small sample Forsberg has been strong so far.  The Flames defensive game has been quite sharp recently, and Wolf’s spectacular start to the season has him firmly in the Calder conversation.