logo
FlamesNation has no direct affiliation to the Calgary Flames, Calgary Sports and Entertainment, NHL, or NHLPA
Race to the bottom: a snapshot of the bottom five with two weeks left
alt
Photo credit: Bob Frid-Imagn Images
Ryan Pike
Apr 3, 2026, 16:00 EDTUpdated: Apr 3, 2026, 14:43 EDT
Comments
In two weeks, the Stanley Cup playoffs will begin.
The Calgary Flames, along with 15 other teams, will not be part of those festivities. But while many teams league-wide are focused on the race to get one of 16 post-season berths, the Flames and a few other clubs are focused at the race to be near the bottom of the standings to maximize draft lottery positioning.
Here’s where things sit heading into the long weekend.

Again, why does finishing low matter?

We’ve mentioned this before, but we’ll reiterate it again:
The NHL uses a lottery system to determine the first round draft order. Everything across all seven rounds of the draft defaults to inverse standings order – the 16 non-playoff teams from worst to best, then the 16 playoff teams – but the draft lottery switches the first round order around based on the whims of four selected ping-pong balls.
If you finish 32nd overall, you have the best odds of the first overall draft choice. But it’s no guarantee. Here are the relative stakes for the bottom five finishers, for perspective:
  • At 32nd overall, you have a 25.5% chance of drafting 1st overall and a 74.5% chance of moving down to 2nd or 3rd.
  • At 31st overall, you have a 13.5% chance of moving up to 1st overall, a 14.1% chance of saying at 2nd overall, and a 72.% chance of moving down to 3rd or 4th.
  • At 30th overall, you have a 22.7% chance of moving up to 1st or 2nd overall, a 7.8% chance of staying at 3rd overall, and a 69.5% chance of moving down to 4th or 5th.
  • At 29th overall, you have a 19.3% chance of moving up to 1st or 2nd overall, a 15.4% chance of staying at 4th overall, and a 65.4% chance of moving down to 5th or 6th.
  • At 28th overall, you have a 17.4% chance of moving up to 1st or 2nd overall, a 24.5% chance of staying at 5th overall, and a 58.2% chance of moving down to 6th or 7th.

The bottom five

Vancouver
  • Points: 52
  • Maximum Points: 66
  • Opponents Left: UTA, VGK, @LAK, @SJS, @ANA, LAK, @EDM
The Canucks have had a dreadful season. They were recently pummelled by the Flames and they clinched the 32nd overall spot in the standings, and the top draft lottery odds, earlier this week.
Chicago
  • Points: 68
  • Maximum Points: 80
  • Opponents Left: @SEA, @SJS, CAR, STL, BUF, SJS
The Blackhawks have had a weird season, and they have a home-skewed final schedule… but one skewed towards playoff or playoff-adjacent teams (and St. Louis).
Calgary
  • Points: 70
  • Maximum Points: 84
  • Opponents Left: @ANA, @DAL, @COL, @SEA, UTA, COL, LAK
With seven games to go, the Flames have no easy games left. Colorado twice! Anaheim! Dallas! It’s all playoff teams or teams desperately trying to claw their way in.
NY Rangers
  • Points: 71
  • Maximum Points: 85
  • Opponents Left: DET, WSH, BUF, @DAL, @FLA, @TBL
The Rangers have six games left and their schedule seems pretty similar to Chicago’s in terms of quality of competition. Mostly playoff-bound opponents, but also some teams that have slid out of that mix.
St. Louis
  • Points: 74
  • Maximum Points: 90
  • Opponents Left: @ANA, @COL, COL, WPG, @CHI, MIN, PIT, @UTA
The Blues enter the long weekend in 28th overall – fifth-from-last – but man, they’re just behind Seattle (75 points), Winnipeg (76 points), and Toronto and Florida (each with 77 points). And with seven games left, the thing that may keep St. Louis in the bottom five mix is their schedule: aside from the basement bowl against with Winnipeg and Chicago, that’s a rough last few games.
How do you feel about the Flames’ chances to get a high draft pick in the lottery? Let us know in the comments!
Sponsored by bet365:

Editorials

Breaking News