Sean Monahan is a legitimate #1 centre
6 years ago
The centre ice position is one of the most important for an NHL hockey team. For several years, teams have coveted having depth at centre, and are willing to invest significant cap dollars to fill this need.
Of all players with an AAV greater than $7M at the start of next season, 15/40 will be centremen, the highest represented position on the list. This doesn’t include Joe Thornton, Paul Stastny, and Henrik Sedin who currently have cap hits of $7M+ and whose contracts expire this season, and John Tavares who is bound to receive a significant raise from his current $5.5M AAV.
GMs consistently say that to find success, it is imperative that a team is strong down the middle, and it’s no secret that when thinking of the best players in the league, centremen come to mind.
Finding a number one centre, however, is no easy task. It seems the only way to pry an established centre from another team is through a blockbuster trade, and they do not come cheap. The draft is the only proven way to get top players nowadays; 21 first line centres were drafted by their current team.
The Flames’ number one centre, Sean Monahan, is one of these 21. However, his AAV is below $7M, he hasn’t challenged for any scoring awards in his career thus far, and it’s his wingman, Johnny Gaudreau, who gets most of the Flames fanfare.
On the surface, Monahan doesn’t appear to be a player who would be in the conversation for the best players in the league or even the best centres in the league. In his young career so far, his status as a number one centre was in doubt; Sam Bennett was once-upon-a-time expected to usurp Monahan on the top line, and the status of Monahan in the league’s long list of elite centremen is still a hotly debated topic.
The numbers, however, don’t lie. Over the past three seasons inclusive, Monahan has improved in all three zones and ranks among the best players in the league in a number of key offensive categories. The 2016-17 season was a down year for Monahan production-wise, but he still improved his overall game.
The following ranks are for centre-eligible players who played a minimum of 800 minutes and took a minimum of 500 faceoffs, prorated for the current season through 24 games. Stats shown below are for all situations.
2015-16 | 2016-17 | 2017-18 | ||||
Value | Rank | Value | Rank | Value | Rank | |
G/60 | 1.04 | 27 | 1.12 | 21 | 1.89 | 2 |
P/60 | 2.43 | 28 | 2.41 | 39 | 3.51 | 7 |
FO% | 51.0% | 45 | 51.5% | 41 | 52.9% | 40 |
CF% | 54.3% | 62 | 56.5% | 47 | 61.2% | 9 |
SCF% | 54.4% | 63 | 58.4% | 38 | 64.2% | 3 |
HDCF% | 53.3% | 70 | 55.4% | 58 | 63.9% | 10 |
Monahan’s scoring prowess has been well documented. He is, without a doubt, one of the league’s best snipers and knows how to put the puck in the net. His goal scoring rates have steadily increased over the past three years and currently sits at 1.89 G/60 this season, good for first in the NHL. Granted, his shooting percentage is a whopping 21.2% which is likely to regress back to his career average of 15.3%, but most of his goals have come from the slot so his totals aren’t overly inflated. He’s just been shooting from extremely high danger areas. His point production paints the same picture. Despite a dip in production last season, Monahan is scoring 1.08 more points per 60 this season than in 2015.
His ability to create offensive chances has steadily improved as well. His CF% has gone up by 6.9% and SCF% up by 9.8%. Not only is Monahan spending more time in the offensive zone, but he’s also generating more scoring chances every season. He has become more responsible with the puck and can be relied upon in all situations. Granted, Gaudreau is a big reason why Monahan’s line is able to dominate in the offensive zone, but Monahan’s contributions cannot be ignored either.
What is really impressive is Monahan’s HDCF%. Increasing by 10.6% over the three-year period, Monahan has been able to put himself in prime scoring areas at a much higher rate. His jump in production isn’t too surprising when you consider the fact that he’s generated much more high percentage scoring opportunities.
Monahan’s improvement goes beyond scoring, too. His faceoff percentage has also increased each season. Centremen are required to constantly adapt to changing rules in the faceoff dot and Monahan has only gotten better. Winning faceoffs is important, it’s no coincidence that the top teams in the NHL also have the highest FO%.
Monahan’s current 48-goal, 89-point pace will likely reduce as the season progresses, but there is no doubting that right now, he is not only among the NHL’s best centremen, but among the best players overall.
Even with a decrease in production inevitably looming, the Flames clearly have themselves a rare commodity: a legitimate number one centre.
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