The Calgary Flames’ first-round picks have almost always signed

First-round draft selections are high stakes picks. They’re the most heavily scouted players in their draft class and, as a result, the youngsters that scouts feel they can project most accurately. As such, they’re considered the guys with the highest potential impact, which makes drafting them and then signing them incredibly important for an organization.

The signing by the Calgary Flames of 2021 first-round pick Matt Coronato this weekend ended a period of moderate hand-wringing for Flames fans that was largely unnecessary, because first-round picks (even college players) almost always sign.

Over their 50 years of existence, the Flames franchise has gone to 51 drafts and made 47 first-round picks, with Coronato’s selection in 2021 being the 47th time the Flames have chosen somebody in the opening round. Of those 47 first-round picks, only two didn’t end up signing with the Flames.

The two non-signings were George Pelawa in 1986 and Tim Erixon in 2009.

So of all the Flames’ high picks dating back to 1972, only two players didn’t sign with the Flames, and Pelawa had reportedly indicated a high level of willingness to sign, following his planned time at college (and potentially an appearance at the 1988 Winter Olympics in Calgary).

Four other first-rounders signed with the Flames but didn’t end up playing any games for the organization: Chris Biotti (1985), Bryan Deasley (1987), Jesper Mattsson (1993) and Brent Krahn (2000). Krahn, for his part, eventually played a period of NHL hockey for Dallas. Obviously so far neither of 2020 first-rounder Connor Zary or Coronato have played NHL games yet, but both seem like strong candidates to do so in short order. Heck, depending on what happens with the big club’s playoff hopes, we could see Zary brought up before season’s end.

Now, we hear you comments section: “It’s not a first-round thing, it’s a college player thing! That’s why we were so nervous!” But even that anxiety is largely unfounded, as a vast, vast majority of college-bound (or college-playing) first-round picks taken between 2010 and 2020 have signed with the club that drafted them.

By our rough count, in those 11 drafts (2010-20) there were about 64 or 65 players drafted in the first round that were either actively playing college hockey or had committed to a college team when they were drafted. Of those, all but four have signed with the team that drafted them.

That’s it. So the only team that had a college player walk in past decade or so is Chicago. If you look, you can probably notice that every Canadian team – except for Toronto, which didn’t take any college players in the first round in this span – drafted and eventually signed an NCAA (or NCAA-bound) first-rounder.

Teams do a lot of due diligence on first-round picks. They’re high stakes assets. But by the time a player is drafted that early, typically a team has a good handle on what they’re going to be doing. That’s why a vast majority of first-rounders sign with the team that drafted them, even if that player is headed to college or the team that drafted them is Canadian.