CAN-SWE Ratings Captain Canada on top 🇨🇦
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Beyond the Boxscore: Canada survives late push from Sweden in 4 Nations Victory

Photo credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images
Feb 13, 2025, 10:00 ESTUpdated: Feb 13, 2025, 01:40 EST
The 4 Nations Face-Off got underway in what ended up as a very entertaining win for Canada, defeating team Sweden 4-3 in overtime.
CAN: CF% – 49.58%|| SCF% – 61.82%|| HDCF% – 71.61%|| xGF% – 55.64%
SWE: CF% – 50.42%|| SCF% – 38.18%|| HDCF% – 28.39%|| xGF% – 44.36%
It’s a Team Game – The start of this game was all Canada. They scored what could only be described as a stunning power play goal almost immediately as Nathan MacKinnon took a no-look backdoor feed from Sidney Crosby. The whole play initiated from Connor McDavid on the flank – a connection one would only ever find in a best-on-best tournament. Canada would keep the pressure up all period making me wonder if Sweden was going to come out of this game looking good at all. Then, Sweden made some adjustments in the first intermission. After that the Swedes were controlling a lot more of the neutral zone and were able to start pressing mor often. They kept that pressure up right until they finally tied the score at 3-3. Overtime saw both teams get their chances, but the Canadians had started to get a real push back and it resulted in Mitch Marner sending Canada to the locker room victorious.
Corsi King – Sweden had a great night from a player who was robbed of many prime international years with the lack of competition – Erik Karlsson (64.29 CF%). Karlsson was key in leading the initial pushback after the first period. He started finding great passing lanes through the neutral zone where his wingers had a chance to gain the attacking zone with some space. They gave the third star to Lucas Raymond (34.58 per cent) because he notched two assists, but it should have gone to either Karlsson or Adrian Kempe (61.51 per cent). Kempe was a threat to score all night and eventually beat Binnington with a goal the Canadian netminder certainly would want back.
Canada ended up having to lean very heavily on a reliable defence pair after Shea Theodore (46.48 per cent) left with an injury. That would be Colorado Avalanche duo Devon Toews (65.62 per cent) and Cale Makar (47.84 per cent). Toews and his 23:51 at 5v5 led for Canada and the coaching staffs trust in him was further rewarded with some overtime minutes. So much talent on this team it feels weird for a player as good as Sam Reinhart (52.89 per cent) to not see an overtime shift and not feel bad about it.
Under Pressure –

Taken By Chance – Sweden may have gotten better at possessing the puck as the game went on, but the Canadians were very stingy defensively in what they would allow through. The quality of a couple goals Sweden were able to score were not ones you would like to see from your choice of starting netminder. The Swedes only had one player on the ice for at least three high danger chances and that was Captain Victor Hedman (38.10 SCF% || 32.26 HDCF%). Hedman also saw six high danger chances go against him as he consistently ate the hardest minutes all night long. Rickard Rakell (48.24 per cent || 100 per cent), Mika Zibanejad (51.53 per cent || 100 per cent), and Viktor Arvidsson (32.74 per cent || 100 per cent) failed to register a high danger chances against at 5v5 as well.
Canada was led by defenceman Josh Morrissey (55.44 per cent || 74.67 per cent) and his involvement in eight high danger chances for and only three against. He almost ended up the bad guy with a high-sticking penalty late in regulation, but the Penalty Kill had a strong showing. Drew Doughty (65.55 per cent || 79.41 per cent) did not look rusty and made some great neutral zone reads to advance the puck in this one. Mitch Marner (75.75 per cent || 75.78 per cent) struggled with puck control and reads for most of regulation, but came up poised when it mattered in overtime. Not just the shift he scored his goal on, he got over the boards three times in the extra frame and each time he made his presence notable.
xG Breakdown –


xGF% – Sweden didn’t utilize their fourth forward line led by Elias Lindholm (58.58 xGF%) too much, but they never got caught on a bad shift either. Jonas Brodin (45.28 per cent) having the first snipe for Sweden was not on my Bingo card, but he labelled that shot for the top of the net. Another play from a defenceman stood out to me, when Mattias Ekholm (50.73 per cent) almost went into a full spin cycle because of the speed of his Oilers teammate. Speaking of…
Connor McDavid (57.36 per cent) sometimes just appears to be in a class of his own. Nathan MacKinnon (51.81 per cent) can match him for speed usually, but McDavid has that extra ability to just glue the puck to his stick while he effortlessly stickhandles through the attacking zone. Game one certainly ended up the Sidney Crosby (58.00 per cent) show – for good reason too, he deserved it – but I don’t think it will be long for us to see a game where McDavid just pops off. One more player I enjoyed the hustle out of, someone who kept the pace of the game a little higher even when it was trying to slow down, and that was Brandon Hagel (29.02 per cent). Great hustle in a limited role.
Game Flow –

Game Score –
Shot Heatmap –

In The Crease – I think Filip Gustavsson’s rapid ascension that got him a starting role in a major tournament by the age of 26 needs to be talked about more. That’s massively impressive and he more than deserves it. He played admirably against Canada surrendering just two goals against at 5v5 – both coming from the slot. The Mark Stone goal and Marner goal were from a very similar shot location as well, something to keep an eye on. 1.75 expected goals against at 5v5 with just the two getting by
Jordan Binnington has the job right now, but how secure is the starting job? I do believe Canada’s goaltending was exposed in this one and if not for a questionable goal overtime wasn’t necessary. It is what it is and Canada has to persevere through it if they want to win the tournament. 1.74 expected goals against at 5v5 with three getting past Binnington. Not enough to make an immediate change but Adin Hill should stay ready.
The Goals –
Flash’s 3 Stars –
1) Sidney Crosby
2) Erik Karlsson
3) Mitch Marner
(Stats compiled from Naturalstattrick.com – 5v5 Score and Venue Adjusted // Game Score from Hockeystatcards.com // xG and Under Pressure charts from HockeyViz.com // Game Flow and Shot Heatmap from NaturalStatTrick.com)
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