The Calgary Flames’ playoff hopes and dreams were dealt a pair of big hits on Wednesday night.

First, fuelled by the returns to action of Joel Eriksson Ek and Kirill Kaprizov, the Minnesota Wild beat the San Jose Sharks in overtime. Later that evening, the Flames let a two-goal third period lead slip away and lost to the Anaheim Ducks in overtime.

The combination of the two results likely left Flames fans feeling a little like this…

So here’s how things look for the Flames: with four games remaining, they have 88 points. If they win their remaining games in regulation, they’ll max out at 96 points – with 32 regulation wins, 37 regulation/overtime wins and 41 wins. (Those are important because of tiebreakers.)

It is mathematically still possible for the Flames to catch three teams currently in playoff positions: Edmonton, Minnesota and St. Louis. We’ve sorted them from the scenario where the Flames require the most help, to the scenario where they need the least help. (Spoiler: they require help in all three scenarios.)

Edmonton has 95 points with four games left – with 33 regulation wins, 45 regulation/overtime wins and 45 wins. If the Flames tie the Oilers in points, they will lose every tiebreaker and so they need to finish with more points than the Oilers. The only way the Flames can make the playoffs over Edmonton is if the Flames win all four games remaining and Edmonton loses all four games remaining in regulation.

Minnesota has 93 points with three games left – with 33 regulation wins, 40 regulation/overtime wins and 43 wins. If the Flames tie Minnesota in points, they lose every tiebreaker and so they need to finish with more points than the Wild. The Flames can make the playoffs over Minnesota if the Flames win all four games and the Wild lose twice in regulation OR if the Flames win three games and the Wild lose all of their remaining games in regulation.

St. Louis has 93 points with two games left – with 31 regulation wins, 39 regulation/overtime wins and 43 wins. The Flames can only win the tiebreaker with St. Louis if the Blues don’t win in regulation in their last two games, and we’re ignoring that possibility for simplicity’s sake and projecting that they need to finish with more points than the Blues. The Flames can make the playoffs over St. Louis if the Flames win all four games and the Blues lose once in regulation OR if the Flames win three games and the Blues lose both of their remaining games in regulation.

Are the Flames completely doomed to miss the playoffs? No. They remain mathematically alive. But the fact that we had to phrase it that way tips their hand a bit; the deck is decidedly stacked against them in even the most optimistic scenario here. All they can do is try to win their remaining games and hope against hope that they get a lot of help from the out-of-town scoreboard.

The Flames are back in action on Friday night when they host Minnesota.