The Calgary Flames will host the red-hot Ottawa Senators Thursday evening in what will be their second last matchup before the holiday break.

With a record of 7-2-1 over their last 10 games, the Senators are now priced at -130 to snap their seven-year playoff drought this season. After a slow start to the season, goaltender Linus Ullmark enters this matchup in incredible form, with a record of 6-0-0 and a .972 save percentage in his last six outings.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

In my preview for the Flames matchup in Ottawa on Nov. 25, I discussed how the Senators were entering a soft patch in their schedule, and that their underlying results suggested it was possible they could still turn the season around. They’ve done exactly that, going 8-2-1 over their last 11 games, which also included a 4-3 over the Flames in that span.

The greatest reason for their turnaround has been Ullmark, a former Vezina-winning goaltender, finding his groove after a slow start to the season. Ullmark now holds a +7.2 GSAx rating this season, and has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this match-up.

It’s been more than Ullmark simply carrying the Senators to strong results recently, as their underlying results tell us they are suppressing chances at a better than average rate. Over the last 10 games, Ottawa has allowed just 2.96 xGA/60, and 27.59 shots against per 60.

Even while playing through a fairly soft slate of opponents, the Senators have generated 3.09 goals for per game. It’s been their dominant defensive play that has helped them find better results more than anything else, though their underlying results do suggest they are due some improvement offensively as well.

Artem Zub and David Perron are expected to be the only Senators skaters out of the lineup due to injury in this match-up.

With a mark of 3-2-2 in December, the Flames remain inside of a playoff position entering this match-up, as they have played less games than the Avalanche who also have 36 points.

The Flames let a critical point slip away Tuesday, as they authored an ugly collapse versus the Bruins. Calgary failed to carry its strong start to the game into the final 30 minutes, as the Bruins poured it on and ultimately broke through for a deserving win. The Flames generated just eight high-danger scoring chances, compared to the Bruins’ total of 19.

Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri and Martin Pospisil once again performed like a true top line, as Kadri scored in his fourth consecutive match-up. It’s still hard to see all that much offensive upside among the Flames roster, but Huberdeau and Kadri living up to their hefty contracts certainly raises the floor to what we saw earlier on in the year.

In the month of December, Calgary has generated just 2.66 xGF/60, but is doing a good job of limiting chances at the other end of ice in allowing just 2.82 xGA/60. At their best, we have seen head coach Ryan Huska’s side win some tight-checking, low-event games at home versus high quality opponents, and the roster composition suggests that is the way this team will find success most often.

Dan Vladar has been confirmed as the Flames’ starting goaltender in this match-up. He has played to an .885 save % and 3.08 GAA in 16 appearances this season.

Based largely on the brilliance of Ullmark, the Senators have turned things around and lead the league in points this December. It hasn’t simply been strong goaltending either, as they have featured a strong underlying profile all season, and did appear due for better results early on.

The Sens still are not generating a ton offensively, though, and have played a lot of low-event match-ups of late. The Flames may have a slightly better chance of stealing a low-scoring affair than oddsmakers seem to be crediting.

The Flames have proven on a number of occasions that they are capable of stealing games on home ice with inspired, well-organized defensive performances.

With Ullmark starting, taking the longer number for the Sens to go under 2.5 team goals at +130 rather than backing the Flames to win at +115 appears to be a better proposition. Given the way Ullmark has played of late, it’s hard to see the Flames winning a high-scoring game in this matchup very often, but I do think the Flames could potentially hold the Sens to a lower total than oddsmakers are crediting.