The Calgary Flames will host the red-hot Detroit Red Wings for an exciting matchup Saturday evening, a game which will be nationally broadcast on Hockey Night in Canada.

This matchup holds plenty of added excitement for Flames fans, as recently acquired forwards Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee are expected to make their respective debuts with the team. After earning a 4-1 victory over the Anaheim Ducks in their last matchup, the Flames are now 16-7-3 on home ice this season.

The Red Wings kicked off their four-game road trip with a shootout victory over the Oilers, and enter this matchup in the midst of a four-game winning streak. They are 12-4-1 since appointing Todd McLellan are head coach, which has them right in the thick of the Eastern Conference Wild Card race.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Red Wings earned a 2-1 victory when these teams last met on November 27th, a matchup which saw Lucas Raymond score Detroit’s second power play goal of the game in overtime to send the home crowd home happy. There’s been plenty of change in Detroit since that matchup, aside from the fact that the Red Wings power play continues to be extremely effective.

Under McLellan the Wings are 12-4-1 with a +11 goal differential. He has offered more consistent roles to young players such as Marco Kasper, Albert Johansson, Elmer Soderblom, and Jonatan Berggren, and they have rewarded him with quality play.

Kasper has been elevated to the top line alongside Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, and has put up 10 points over the last 10 games. The trio has generated 3.85 xGF/60, and scored 3.90 goals per 60 where it counts, outscoring opponents 9-6.

The Red Wings’ defensive core is still a concern, but it’s currently looking like a less of a weakness than it did earlier on in the season under former head coach Derek Lalonde. The current second pairing of Simon Edvinsson and Albert Johansson has been fairly effective, while Moritz Seider has been able to carry the top pairing to solid results playing alongside Ben Chiarot.

Johansson in particular has really taken steps forward under McLellan, and has greatly improved the upside of a defensive unit which was horrific under Derek Lalonde.

Even still, the Wings have been far from a defensive juggernaut at even strength under McLellan. They have allowed 2.88 xGA/60 at even strength during his tenure, which is the sixth-worst mark in the league in that span. They have generated more offensively at even strength under McLellan (2.39 xGF/60), but have still been heavily reliant on their elite power play to win games.

Throughout McLellan’s 17-game tenure, the Red Wings power play has converted on 35.7% of opportunities. For reference, the 2022-23 Edmonton Oilers broke the NHL record for all-time highest power play success rate over a full regular season with a mark of 32.4%.

The Wings have restructured their penalty kill under McLellan, yet have still killed off just 72.2% of opportunities during his tenure. That mark is a slight improvement compared to the team’s results under Lalonde, but still ranks 25th in the NHL since December 26th.

Cam Talbot has not been confirmed as the starting goaltender at the time of writing, but is considered probable. He holds a .907 save percentage and +9.5 GSAx rating in 28 appearances this season.

Despite ranking 28th in goals scored per game this season, the Flames enter this matchup one point ahead of the Vancouver Canucks for the final Western Conference playoff spot. GM Craig Conroy took some initiative to help improve the team’s offensive upside Thursday evening, acquiring Frost and Farabee from Philadelphia for Andrei Kuzmenko, Jakob Pelletier, as well as the Flames’ 2025 second-round pick, and 2028 seventh-round pick.

The trade offers the Flames a great opportunity to try and buy low on a pair of young forwards that have underachieved this season under head coach John Tortorella, and both entered the league as first-round draft picks.

Frost has put up 25 points in 49 games this season, after putting up 41 points in 71 games last season skating in highly inconsistent roles. Farabee has produced 19 points in 50 games this season, and put up 50 points in 82 games in 2023-24.

While my point is not to say that Tortorella is a bad coach, it is obvious to state that not every player seems to mesh well with his style, and that certainly supports the argument that Frost and Farabee still have room to grow and are smart acquisitions.

While they could help Calgary close out a surprising playoff berth this season, they could certainly be important pieces moving forward. Farabee holds. a $5-million dollar cap hit through the end of the 2027-28 season, while Frost is currently making $2 million dollars and will be an RFA at the end of this season.

As expected, Frost appears to making his debut as the team’s third line centre, and took morning skate between Yegor Sharangovich and Martin Pospisil. He also skated on the team’s top power play unit.

Farabee took the morning skate alongside Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau on the top line, and also looks to be getting a role on the second power play unit.

Per Pat Steinberg, Dustin Wolf will be the starting goaltender in this matchup. Wolf holds a +12.6 GSAx rating and a .917 save percentage in 29 appearances this season.

While the Red Wings have certainly found better form under McLellan, it still seems unlikely that their current process will lead to such strong results moving forward. They continue to lean heavily upon elite goaltending and a historically dominant power play to find success, but their defensive results have still been quite modest.

Perhaps there will be an adjustment period for Frost and Farabee, but I’m very high on the deal for the Flames and believe it has the potential to make them a considerably more formidable side this season. They have been a tremendous bet with Wolf in between the pipes this season, and at -109, would be my lean in terms of a side.

Farabee is available at +134 to record a point, a price which may not be around for long if he is able to find his game playing alongside Kadri and Huberdeau on the top line. He is getting a great opportunity to make an immediate impact in his home debut versus a below average defensive side, and I believe at +134, there is value backing him to find the scoresheet.