The Calgary Flames will complete their season series with the St. Louis Blues on Thursday evening at the Enterprise Center. The Blues were able to advantage of a favourable scheduling spot and earn a 2-1 win over the Flames on Tuesday, and bested Calgary in overtime on December 5th thanks to a controversial goal from Colton Parayko.

With their win in Tuesday’s matchup, the Blues pulled to within three points of the Flames for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference, but they’ve played two more games than the Flames.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Flames aren’t going to steal many games in which they are outworked by their opponent, or lack strong defensive structure, as we have seen over a large sample the team’s inability to finish chances at a high rate. While that could make grinding out a playoff spot over an 82-game schedule difficult, head coach Ryan Huska’s side deserves a lot of credit for their consistent compete level this season, and they put together another spirited performance Tuesday despite a losing result.

The Flames outshot the Blues 28-25 and had numerous opportunities to tie the game late in the third. That matchup was the Flames’ third game in four nights, while the Blues entered the game on two days of rest. While the Flames will still be at somewhat of a rest disadvantage in this game, this spot should provide them a more fair opportunity to earn a win over a Blues team which they have played quite closely this season.

The Flames have put together a steady 6-4-0 run over the last 10 games, displaying some consistent play in a number of key areas on the roster during that span. Huska has not been forced to adjust his top-six at all of late, as both of his top two offensive units have been consistently outplaying the opposition.

Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri, and Martin Pospisil continue to show strong chemistry together, and have outscored opponents 12-7 at even strength this season. Matthew Coronato has taken his game to another level of late playing alongside Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman on the second line, a trio which has outscored opponents 13-6 this season.

Inserting Rory Kerins onto the third line has sparked two more inspired performances from the third line, and it appears that Kerins will remain in the lineup for this matchup.

Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the starting goaltender for this matchup. He holds a record of 15-6-2 with a .916 save percentage, and a +8.6 GSAx rating this season.

With their win over the Flames on Tuesday, the Blues moved to 12-8-1 under head coach Jim Montgomery, and hold a 53.83% expected goal share in that span. One interesting note to consider is that the Blues were able to author a comparable stretch of play last season when they first brought in head coach Drew Bannister, but ultimately came up shy of earning a postseason berth. Based on their remaining opponents’ current points percentage, the Blues have the seventh-toughest remaining schedule in the NHL.

The Blues rank 24th with a 2.80 goals-per-game average this season, after finishing last year with a 24th-ranked goals-scored-per-game average. Jordan Kyrou and Robert Thomas are the most consistent point producers from either side in this matchup, but similar to the Flames, the Blues’ bottom-six has also struggled to produce over the last two seasons.

Jake Neighbours was listed as day-to-day entering this matchup, but appears likely to play based on today’s morning skate.

Joel Hofer has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a -6.1 GSAx and .902 save percentage in 15 games this season.

The Blues caught the Flames in a highly favourable spot in Tuesday’s matchup, as Calgary was playing night two of a travelling back-to-back and had Vladar in goal. Despite some less than ideal circumstances, the Flames played the Blues quite well in that game and suffered somewhat of a tough-luck loss.

This game figures to be quite evenly-contested, and it seems likely that the Flames can give themselves a solid chance of winning with a strong defensive performance versus a fairly modest Blues attack, and make this into somewhat of a coin-flip.

While Vladar’s play was certainly not the reason the Flames’ loss on Tuesday, it is significant that Wolf should get the start in this matchup. We have talked a lot about how profitable the Flames have been in Wolf’s starts this season, and getting Calgary at +119 in a matchup which should be quite evenly contested looks like a good proposition.