For the first time this season, the Calgary Flames and Anaheim Ducks will face off Tuesday evening at the Honda Center.

At 18-14-7, the Flames enter this matchup with a five-point lead over the Ducks in the Pacific Division standings, with each side having played 39 games thus far.

Anaheim has been in better form of late, however, with a record of 6-4-0 over the last 10 games, including a 4-1 victory over the Tampa Bay Lightning on Sunday evening.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

Are the Flames beginning to come down to earth after their surprisingly strong start to the season? It seems possible that is the case, as they enter this matchup off of consecutive home losses in very winnable games versus the Utah Hockey Club and Nashville Predators.

Given how much parity the NHL has offered this season it’s hard to say there are any easy wins, but this matchup offers the Flames a huge opportunity to get right and claim two points.

Per Andy MacNeil of Daily Faceoff, when road teams have a rest advantage this season, home teams have won just 45.3% of games this season, and 47.8% of games last season. The Flames will have a rest advantage in this matchup after last playing on Saturday.

Since December 1st, the Flames hold a record of 6-5-3, and have continued to struggle significantly to generate offence. In those 14 games, Calgary has scored just 2.79 goals for per game, which ranks 22nd in the league.

Robert Munnich authored an interesting article outlining ways that Flames head coach Ryan Huska could attempt to improve the team’s offence today, and I would certainly agree that a lot of the potential adjustments to the lineup Munnich suggests are worth trying.

The Flames’ lack of truly elite forwards will always be a concern, but depth scoring has arguably been a larger concern of late which must be addressed quickly.

Generating shots on target has not been a problem for the Flames over the last two seasons, as they generated 30.91 SF/60 in 2023-24, and have generated 28.48 SF/60 since December 1st (11th-highest in NHL). It continues to appear that a lack of quality shots combined with modest finishing talent is the greater issue with the Flames’ game offensively.

Over the last five games, Nazem Kadri has averaged five shots on goal per game from a total of 35 attempts. Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau and Martin Pospisil have generated 74.01 shot attempts per 60 in 169.4 minutes together at even strength, and have been productive where it counts in scoring 3.90 goals for per 60. They have outscored opponents 11-6.

Dustin Wolf was in the starter’s crease at today’s morning skate and is expected to make his 21st start of the season in this matchup. He holds a .913 save percentage and 2.63 GAA in his initial 20 appearances.

The Ducks enter this matchup in the midst of a 7-4-0 tear, and the team’s lengthy rebuild finally looks to be trending in the right direction. A huge part of the team’s modest success this season comes down to the fact that they have received arguably the league’s best goaltending from Lukas Dostal and John Gibson, though the actual play of head coach Greg Cronin’s side is probably being overvalued to some extent because of that fact.

Dostal and Gibson have combined for the league’s third-best save percentage, and the Ducks rank first by a wide margin in allowing -32.71 Goals Against Above Expected.

Watching the Ducks play, it’s still visibly clear that they allow opponents more space in the offensive zone than an average side. Since December 1st, Anaheim has allowed 30.1 shots against per 60 and 3.86 xGA/60.

The addition of Jacob Trouba brings some positive intangibles into the locker room which may have helped the Ducks’ recent turnaround, but his actual on-ice play has still not been overly effective. In 92 minutes together, Trouba and current defence partner Brian Dumoulin hold an expected goal share of 39.5%.

Troy Terry missed today’s morning skate as his wife, Dani, went into labour. He is considered questionable for this matchup, and would leave a significant hole on the Ducks’ top line and top power-play unit.

John Gibson has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup. He holds a +12.0 GSAx rating and .912 save percentage in 14 appearances this season.

The Ducks have beaten some quality teams of late, which does make them look somewhat attractive at a price of +125 in this matchup. However. they have still been heavily outplayed in the majority of recent matchups, and have stolen some wins with the perfect combination of timely goal-scoring and elite goaltending which may not be sustainable.

I’m not really sold on backing the Flames at this kind of a number right now either versus a red-hot goaltender, but this does look like a good spot to target the Flames’ greatest volume shooter in Kadri, who has been generating a ton of shot attempts of late alongside Pospisil and Huberdeau.

A logical game script for this matchup could be the Flames pour a ton of attempts towards Gibson, but fail to create much separation on the scoreboard. At -120 or better, I see value backing Kadri to record four or more shots on goal in this matchup.