The Calgary Flames will wrap up their four game Eastern road trip with a matinee versus the New York Islanders, who are also in the midst of a competitive wild card race.

Thanks to a spirited comeback on Thursday versus the New Jersey Devils, the Flames are now NHL .500 on the road this season with a record of 14-14-6. Calgary earned a 2-1 shootout victory over the Islanders in this season’s first meeting, but it is considered a betting underdog in Saturday’s match-up.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The third period of Thursday’s match-up was one of the more exciting ones of Calgary’s entire season, as it netted four consecutive goals to earn an uncharacteristic high scoring win. Unfortunately Thursday’s out of town scoreboard was about as bad as it could get, as the St. Louis Blues beat the Vancouver Canucks in overtime, and the Utah Hockey Club beat the Buffalo Sabres in regulation.

Jacob Markstrom would probably like to have two of the four goals allowed in Thursday’s match-up back, but the Flames certainly won’t feel guilty about finally receiving some more favourable luck in terms of attempts on goal finding a way in. The Flames held a 15-11 edge in high danger scoring chances, and generated 3.78 expected goals while allowing 2.63 against.

Head coach Ryan Huska’s newly formed top line of Nazem Kadri, Connor Zary and Martin Pospisil was effective once again, and all three were rewarded with a point. In 11:59 of even strength ice-time together the trio out attempted New Jersey 24-11, and held a 61.5% expected goal share. Zary had a game-high five shots on goal to cash our bet, and more importantly recorded his 13th goal of the season.

Given the Flames’ performances versus the Devils and New York Rangers, it would be surprising to see Huska shake up his lineup ahead of this match-up.

While Markstrom’s soft play helped power the Flames strong offensive night on Thursday, they certainly could easily have had more than two goals versus the Rangers. Splitting up Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau has led to a more balanced top-six, which could be sustainable moving forward if Zary can continue to perform like a true top liner.

Over the last 10 games the Flames hold an expected goal share of just 42.55%, but they have played a tough slate of opponents in that span. Their process has looked much better over the last two match-ups, and a match-up versus the Islanders should give them a good chance to continue carrying play at a more respectable rate.

At the time of writing, it’s unclear whether Calgary will start Dustin Wolf or Dan Vladar in this match-up. Given that the Flames are off until Tuesday it seems more likely Wolf will start, though Vladar has elevated his game considerably in his recent appearances. Wolf holds a +14.2 GSAx rating and .911 save percentage in 42 appearances, and is currently priced at +2200 to win the Calder Trophy.

The Islanders season has looked to be a write-off on several occasions, but head coach Patrick Roy’s side has shown excellent resiliency to hang around in the race. Their recent 7-3-1 run has coincided with some ugly results from the Rangers, Detroit Red Wings and Columbus Blue Jackets, and suddenly a playoff berth looks somewhat plausible.

The Islanders have dealt with a number of significant injuries this season, and even with top forward Mathew Barzal sidelined are still offering a much more complete lineup than they have had throughout the majority of the year.

While the Islanders are finding results where it matters recently, their overall process has not looked very convincing. During their 7-3-1 run they hold an expected goal share of 46.06%, and they have played a softer than average slate of opponents. They hold a goal differential of +1 in that span, and have done a good job of finding ways to win close games.

Ilya Sorokin has found his game after an unexpectedly poor start to the campaign, but he will be rested in favour of backup Marcus Hogberg in this match-up. In a small sample of eight games, Hogberg has been a pleasant surprise for the Islanders recording a .938 save percentage and +8.9 GSAx rating.

Both of these teams are right in the thick of heated wild card races, and this game should feature a playoff type atmosphere as a result. The gap in form between these teams right now looks quite marginal, and would likely look even smaller if the two had played comparably difficult schedules since the 4 Nations Face-Off break.

Neither side has been overly competent offensively this season, as they rank 25th and 31st in goals scored per game respectively. They have both hung around in a number of low-event contests thanks to some elite goaltending, and it would seem surprising to see either team win this game by more than one or two goals.

At +115 the Flames would be my lean in terms of betting a side, as it seems likely that this game will be somewhat of a coin-flip. In a spot where it seems unlikely either side will garner much separation on the scoreboard, I see value at the long price of +314 for this game to require overtime.