After their shootout loss in Wednesday’s critical match-up versus the Vancouver Canucks, the Calgary Flames sit tied with the Canucks in the Wildcard race, holding one game in hand.

Calgary’s game in hand comes in the form of a tough match-up versus the high-powered Colorado Avalanche, who oddsmakers consider the seventh most likely team to win the Stanley Cup based on current betting odds. The Flames were unable to keep the Avs’ top-stars in check when these two sides last met on Feb. 6, suffering a 4-2 defeat.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

No roster in the NHL has undergone more significant reconstruction this season than Colorado’s, as GM Joe Sakic has made a number of significant moves to help bolster the team’s depth. While the Avs’ top stars have all been true to form this season, poor play elsewhere on the roster prevented them from being a truly dominant side earlier on in the campaign.

Colorado’s offensive core features four new pieces compared to earlier in the year, as Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle, Martin Necas and Jack Drury have all been acquired via trade. Valeri Nichushkin has also returned from injury, and has been effective with six points in seven games.

Artturi Lehkonen- Nathan MacKinnon- Martin Necas
Jonathan Drouin- Brock Nelson- Valeri Nichushkin
Joel Kiviranta- Charlie Coyle- Ross Colton
Parker Kelly- Jack Drury- Logan O’Connor

Devon Toews -Cale Makar
Ryan Lindgren- Josh Manson
Samuel Girard- Sam Malinski

When these team’s last met on Feb. 6, I outlined how the Avs’ only had one truly strong offensive unit, and Calgary’s need to keep that unit in check. That helps to illustrate the point of how much better their roster is currently looking, as with Nelson and Nichushkin in the fold, they now hold a high quality second line.

If there is one concern on paper for the Avs’ relative to other cup contenders, it’s the defensive depth behind their incredible top pairing of Devon Toews and Cale Makar. They acquired Ryan Lindgren to help alleviate that concern, hoping that Lindgren can find his game in softer usage, after a horrible start to the season with the New York Rangers.

The Avalanche are 7-2-1 in their last 10 games, and hold an expected goal share of 57.62% in that span. They have continued to receive strong play in goal from their revamped tandem of Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood, who hold a .913 save percentage in those 10 match-ups.

For a change, the Avalanche have no skaters on the IR that have played for the team this season. Captain Gabriel Landeskog remains sidelined with what could prove to be a career ending knee injury, which is the subject of Amazon’s five-part mini series, which premiered last Sunday.

The Flames should be well motivated to bounce back in this difficult match-up, after a disappointing third period collapse in their critical match-up versus the Canucks on Wednesday. The Canucks held a 19-12 edge in high danger scoring chances, and led 4.69 to 2.14 edge in expected goal share.

One of the Flames greater concerns in the game was a lack of discipline, as they three relatively pointless penalties which did prove costly. The Canucks only scored one power play goal officially, but Pius Suter’s first period marker also came just after Connor Zary got out of the box, before the Flames could regain possession and reset.

While it’s easy to love Connor Zary’s intentions in sticking up for Nazem Kadri after a heavy, albeit clean hit, the timing of Zary’s response in such a critical game wasn’t right. Unfortunately Zary also received a two-game suspension, which coupled with Mikael Backlund’s injury, will leave the Flames without two notable forwards in this match-up.

It appears as though Adam Klapka and Dryden Hunt will draw into the lineup due to Backlund and Zary’s absences. Brayden Pachal appears to coming out of the lineup in favour of Daniil Miromanov on the back end. After a solid start to the season, Miromanov’s play has fallen off considerably, which has unfortunately been the case for several of Calgary’s blue-liners.

Kevin Bahl and MacKenzie Weegar are the only two Flames defenders who are consistently providing above average play right now, and it’s lead to some pretty ugly defensive results, and also seems to be hampering the team’s ability to generate scoring chances. Over the last 10 games the Flames have allowed 3.28 xGA/60, and hold a 31st ranked expected goal share of 42.97%.

Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this match-up. He holds a +16.5 GSAx rating and .915 save percentage in 39 appearances this season.

The Flames were outplayed pretty badly when these team’s last met, as Colorado dominated the second two periods of the game on route to a convincing victory. Tonight’s match-up looks even more daunting, as the Avs’ are at full-health, will have some quality acquisitions in the lineup, and hold a rest advantage.

Backing Colorado to cover the puck-line at +122 would be my lean in terms of a side, but my favourite play lies backing Wolf to record over 25.5 saves. While game script could become an issue if the Avs’ get up several goals early, 25.5 still should prove to be a low total for Wolf’s saves if the score-line is remotely competitive.

Wolf has averaged 26.5 saves over his eight starts, and recorded over 25 six times, including when these team’s last met when he made 30 saves. The Avalanche play at a high pace and generate plenty of chances, and there looks to be a better chance than a -121 price tag implies that Wolf will go over 25.5 once again in this match-up.