The Calgary Flames will play their first home game after a successful four-game road trip when they host the Seattle Kraken on Tuesday evening.

The Flames were betting underdogs in all four games of their Eastern road swing, but were able to earn three wins to help keep pace with the red-hot St. Louis Blues in a close division race. They will look to avoid a letdown playing as favourites on home ice, where they hold a record of 18-11-5.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

This will be the fourth and final matchup between these Pacific Division rivals, and the first three have been quite competitive. The Kraken beat the Flames 3-2 in overtime on October 22nd, lost 3-2 on February 2nd, and earned a 3-2 overtime win in Calgary on February 8th in the final matchup prior to the 4 Nations Face-Off.

The Kraken’s lineup will be looking a little different than it did the last time these teams met, though. Forwards Yanni Gourde and Oliver Bjorkstrand were traded away to Tampa Bay at the deadline, while Brandon Tanev was shipped off to Winnipeg.

Captain Jordan Eberle returned from a lengthy hip rehab on February 22nd, and has put up 10 points in 14 games since returning to the lineup.

Jani Nyman was called up from the AHL after the team’s pair of trades, and the 20 year-old Finn has been impressive with two goals and four points in his first six contests.

Chandler Stephenson is listed as day-to-day, and has averaged more time-on-ice than any other Kraken forward. However, his loss arguably is even a net-positive, considering how horrible his statistics are this season. Stephenson holds a -7.2 expected goals above replacement rating this season.

Aside from those changes, the Kraken’s recent form looks relatively comparable to the rest of their season. They hold an expected goal share of 48.59% since the 4 Nations Face-Off, and a record of 6-7-1. There are some parallels between these two rosters, but one of the greatest differences has been Calgary’s ability to earn wins in close games.

Joey Daccord is expected to get the start in goal. He holds a +16.0 GSAx rating and .907 save percentage in 48 appearances this season.

The results from Calgary’s recent road trip were obviously good, but the process was also equally convincing. The Flames controlled much more of the overall game play than we have typically seen over the last month, as they held a 51.92% expected goal share and allowed only 2.61 xGA/60.

The Flames scored 11 goals across the final three games of the road trip, as head coach Ryan Huska’s decision to split up Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau has been an effective adjustment thus far. Both Kadri and Huberdeau were excellent in each of the last three matchups, and if they can continue to produce like this on separate lines, it will make life much more difficult for opposing coaches.

Connor Zary has offered a high level of play over the last three games playing on Kadri’s wing, producing two points and 11 shots on goal. Huska has also altered his top unit ahead of this matchup, as he looks to be moving Yegor Sharangovich up onto the second line.

The Flames defensive core will likely remain without a critical piece once again Tuesday, as MacKenzie Weegar missed Monday’s practice and is expected to remain out of the lineup. Calgary’s defence core did a good job of hanging in without Weegar versus the Islanders, but his loss would surely prove quite notable over a larger sample, as the Flames have already struggled mightily to ice six effective defenders.

Dustin Wolf has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a +14.2 GSAx rating and .911 save percentage in 42 appearances this season.

The Flames’ game seems to be trending in the right direction, as they look to have found a more balanced offensive combination which has lead to more positive results. They should be fully engaged in this critical matchup, and should be well aware that the Kraken are a more competitive side than their record suggests when Daccord is in goal. If I had to bet a side it would be Calgary at -128, but these two teams have been very evenly matched this season, and Weegar’s potential absence is critical.

At +105, there does look to be value backing Zary to record a point. Zary has recorded points in two of his three games while playing alongside Kadri, and it looks as though Tuesday’s price is not enough of an adjustment to a player of Zary’s offensive quality playing in a top-line role.