The Calgary Flames will look to extend their winning streak to five games when they host the Dallas Stars on Thursday evening.

These teams met earlier this month in Dallas, and the Stars were able to earn a 3-2 overtime win in a game that could have gone either way. Since that matchup, the Stars have played to a record of 5-2-2, while the Flames have gone 5-2-1. Calgary will hold a rest advantage in this matchup, as the Stars faced off versus the Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Stars lineup will feature one significant change compared to the last time these sides faced off, as Mikko Rantanen will be making his 10th appearance with the team. Rantanen has been considerably less productive since leaving the Colorado Avalanche, as he has put up just 12 points in 22 games throughout his tenures with the Carolina Hurricanes and Stars.

With the Stars specifically, Rantanen has six points in nine games, and the team’s top line has not been as effective defensively since his addition. In 62 minutes of even-strength play, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, and Rantanen hold an expected goal share of just 43.1% and have allowed 3.19 xGA/60.

In 12 games this month, the Stars hold an expected goal share of just 45.63% and have allowed 3.38 xGA/60. While Rantanen’s play has been somewhat of a disappointment, he certainly hasn’t been the team’s greatest concern. Matt Dumba and Cody Ceci have both posted significantly below average results, which has been more apparent because top defender Miro Heiskanen is sidelined due to injury.

The Stars have received tremendous play in goal from both Jake Oettinger and Casey DeSmith recently, which has helped to cover up for their shaky defensive form.

As Oettinger started last night versus the Oilers, DeSmith is likely to get the start in Thursday’s matchup. DeSmith has been surprisingly excellent, as he holds a +12.3 GSAx rating and .916 save percentage in 21 appearances this season.

While every Flames game is exciting right now thanks to the close playoff race, they have been particularly enjoyable as the team has begun to find better form offensively. During the Flames’ four-game winning streak, they have scored 3.75 goals per game and generated 3.01 xGF/60.

Nobody is going to mistake the Flames for an offensive powerhouse, but it does seem possible that they can continue to offer offensive results that are more mediocre than dreadful, which would be a considerable improvement on what we have seen throughout much of the season.

Nazem Kadri is in arguably his best run of play as a Flame, and the revamped top line has not regressed since Jonathan Huberdeau was moved to the second unit.  The Flames’ second line of Huberdeau, Morgan Frost, and Matt Coronato has been highly effective, and Frost is proving to be an important acquisition. In 56.3 minutes of play, they have outscored opponents 4-2 and hold a 56% expected goal share.

Dustin Wolf’s elite play in goal will always be the greatest strength of the 2024-25 Flames, but right now it feels as though they don’t have to win ultra low scoring games in order to find success. Wolf is expected to get the start in goal Thursday and will be looking to improve upon a +15.5 GSAx rating and .911 save percentage in 43 appearances this season.

Mikael Backlund is still listed as day-to-day but was a full participant in today’s morning skate, and appears likely to return to the lineup. Rasmus Andersson missed the morning skate, and his status in this matchup is unclear.

While the Stars’ results continue to be quite dominant, their overall process has not looked nearly as convincing. The underlying numbers suggest incredible goaltending has helped to cover up for shaky defensive play, and it seems entirely possible that their defensive core will continue to look flawed until Heiskanen is back.

Calgary looks to be offering a much more balanced offensive attack right now, and has the potential to give an overrated defensive core problems with Dallas playing night two of a back-to-back. The Flames gave the Stars all they could handle earlier in the month in Dallas, and were an inch away from winning in overtime.

At +129, we look to be getting a good price to back a desperate Flames side earning two critical points on home ice Thursday.