Rory Kerins’ career has been nothing short of a roller-coaster ride thus far, he’s one of few who have successfully cracked an NHL lineup after spending significant time in the ECHL.

Kerins has seemingly been doubted at every turn, from falling in the 2020 draft despite a stellar junior career to being the odd man out with the Calgary Wranglers and having to prove himself with the Rapid City Rush. Most recently, Kerins was one of the final cuts from the Flames’ preseason roster and was placed on waivers after leading the team in scoring.

Kerins went unclaimed and will begin the season with the Wranglers. Let’s dive into what reasonable expectations look like for the fourth-year pro.

Kerins was the Wranglers’ leading scorer last year, with 33 goals and 61 points in 63 games, so it’s reasonable to expect him to produce at a point-per-game pace this season.

What the 23-year-old really needs now is more NHL experience; he got his first five games under his belt last season and registered four assists. The most likely outcome this season is that the Caledon, Ontario native replicates his stellar AHL production and gets into the Flames’ lineup for around a quarter of the season while serving as their go-to replacement call-up when injuries inevitably become a factor.

To warrant 20+ auditions with the big club, Kerins would have to play well enough with the Flames and stick around for a few extended stints. He’s certainly capable of forcing Calgary’s hand, but he may need to adapt to playing a different style of play, as he’ll likely spend most of his time serving in a fourth-line role.

As a 23-year-old who’s sort of on the cusp of becoming an NHLer, you’d like to see Kerins really take another step forward this year and push the envelope. Unfortunately, at this point, he needs to do more than just have another strong year with the Wranglers.

He will get his opportunity to play with the Flames; he may even get multiple chances to prove his worth at the NHL level, but if he’s not able to stand out or at least show he’s capable of hanging with the best of ‘em, he’ll fall by the wayside in an organization that has plenty of young players desperate for opportunity.

Ultimately, the way we feel and will talk about Kerins’ season by the end of it will be dictated by what he does in the NHL, and if he doesn’t make Calgary give him a bigger role than last season, it will be considered a disappointment.

There is a world where Kerins carves out a full-time gig with the Flames and ditches the AHL altogether. It may take a trade or a season-ending injury to permanently shake up the roster, but those things happen every year.

The Flames have continually explored ways to score more goals as a club. Goal-scoring was the weakest aspect of their team last season, and it wasn’t particularly close. They could choose to try and address that issue internally with a guy like Kerins, whose calling card is his ability to put the puck in the back of the net.

It seems like Calgary will start the season with the offensively gifted 19-year-old Matvei Gridin on their roster, likely as a potential remedy to their goal-scoring woes. The chances of Gridin sticking around all season are slim, and the Flames will probably go back to the well at some point in search of some juice offensively. If Kerins can provide that juice, then he may not need to play a well-rounded game to become a mainstay.