The Calgary Flames will look to respond to a tough luck loss last night versus the Detroit Red Wings, as they visit Climate Pledge Arena to take on the Seattle Kraken for the second time this season.

Calgary is priced as a fairly hefty underdog (+140) at the time of writing, which certainly might look surprising given the Kraken’s 23-27-3 record. After Dustin Wolf started last night versus the Red Wings, backup Dan Vladar (.886 SV%, 6-10-5) will likely make the start. The Flames are just 9-11-4 on the road, and 1-4-0 in the second leg of back-to-backs this season.

The Kraken also have a significant rest advantage, as they have been off since Thursday’s 6-2 home win over the San Jose Sharks.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

The Flames suffered a familiar loss Saturday evening, as they failed to convert on a number of quality scoring opportunities, and ultimately tallied just one goal where it counts. Calgary poured 34 shots towards Cam Talbot and generated 12 high-danger scoring chances.

It was the exact type of outcome GM Craig Conroy is hoping will become less common thanks to the additions of newcomers Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee, who both had solid performances, despite neither generating a point.

In 15:20 of time-on-ice together, the Flames new-look top trio of Jonathan Huberdeau, Nazem Kadri and Farabee generated 1.13 expected goals for, and allowed just 0.384 expected goals against. Frost made some quality plays on the top power play unit, which moved the puck well and was able to breakthrough with a goal mid-way through the third period.

Now the Flames will look to author a similar performance but find a better result, playing in a number of situations in which they have not found much success this season. As noted they are just 1-4-0 in the second leg of back-to-backs this season, which is correlated to the fact that most of those starts are awarded to Vladar. Vladar holds a -5.7 GSAx rating and .886 save percentage in 21 appearances this season.

As the Flames will not hold a morning skate in this back-to-back spot, it’s unclear what changes may be coming to the lineup. The current offensive line combinations seemed to work well last night despite the result, and I would expect the top-nine to remain untouched.

While Kevin Bahl’s absence continues to be noteworthy on the back end, Jake Bean was effective last night playing alongside MacKenzie Weegar. In 18:16 of time-on-ice the duo held a 66.7% expected goal share, and out-attempted the Red Wings 26-16.

This is a highly favourable spot for the Kraken, which is why they are fairly heavy favourites despite the Flames being the better team this season. When these team’s last met on October 19th Seattle closed as -145 favourites, but the Flames have obviously proven a lot since that point.

On top of the other trends which are working against the Flames in this match-up, the Kraken have been a drastically better side in games started by goaltender Joey Daccord, which will be the case in this match-up.

The gap between Daccord and former backup Philipp Grubauer, who was placed on waivers last week, was even wider than the gap between Wolf and Vladar. Daccord holds a +16.1 GSAx rating and .916 save percentage, while Grubauer posted a -17.5 GSAx and .866 save percentage in 21 starts this season.

Betting the Kraken to win each of Daccord’s outings this season would yield a +10% ROI, while betting the Kraken in each of Grubauer’s outings would yield a -46.6% ROI.

Over the last ten games the Kraken hold a record of 5-5-0, scoring 3.30 goals for per game while allowing 3.20 goals against per game. They have played to an expected goal share of 46.19% in that span, and allowed 3.11 xGA/60.

The addition of Kaapo Kakko from the New York Rangers has paid dividends thus far, as over the last 15 games he has put up 13 points while playing on the top line alongside Matty Beniers and Jaden Schwartz, as well as the top power play unit.

The Kraken’s penalty kill has remained a concern of late, as they have a success rate of just 73.1% over the last ten games. Strong special teams play could be important for the Flames in this matchup, as the spot could allow the Kraken to carry more of the overall play at even strength.

Captain Jordan Eberle has resumed skating, but will not return to the lineup until after the 4 Nations Face-Off at the earliest. Calgary native Ryker Evans is listed as day-to-day, and Yanni Gourde will remain sidelined a while longer after receiving hernia surgery this week.

This is a tough spot for the Flames, who will be fighting an uphill battle playing a road back-to-back with Vladar in goal. None of those trends have been kind to Calgary this season, but that does seem to be well accounted for by the fact that it is a heavy underdog playing against a weaker team.

While Daccord has been excellent, the Flames could surprise and generate some offence in this matchup. Both Frost and Farabee looked good in last night’s matchup, and should raise the team’s offensive upside moving forward.

While backing Farabee to record a point in last night’s game did not pay dividends, I do think it remains a solid play at today’s price of +160 in this matchup. He had a strong debut playing alongside Huberdeau and Kadri, and I believe in time will be productive enough that the price for him to record a point decreases significantly.

Frost also looked good, specifically on the power play, and backing him to record a power play point at long odds could be a solid option. He is priced at just +130 to record a point though, so I believe there is more value backing Farabee at +160 if he remains on the top line.