Just as the Calgary Flames have dropped two straight matchups inside of regulation, the Vancouver Canucks have gone on a three-game winning streak, and suddenly the Flames sit one point back in the playoff race. Calgary does hold a game in hand over Vancouver, which comes in the form of a favourable home matchup versus the Anaheim Ducks on Thursday.

The Ducks hold a record of 10-11-4 on the road this season, but have won three straight games entering this matchup. While many of their talented young forwards have failed to take steps forward this season, their goaltenders have combined for the league’s fourth-highest save percentage, which has made them a scrappy underdog this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

With 48 points through the opening 50 games of the season, the Anaheim Ducks are on pace with the expectations that oddsmakers had entering the year, based on their pre-season betting total of 76.5 points. While that might suggest head coach Greg Cronin has done a relatively good job bringing along his young core, not many analysts who have followed the team closely would agree with that statement.

The Ducks rank last in goals scored per game this season, and there’s an argument to be made that not one of the team’s talented young skaters has outperformed pre-season expectations this season. Leo Carlsson has put up just 16 points in 44 games, Mason McTavish has recorded 26 points in 44 games, Cutter Gauthier has 21 points in 51 games, and Trevor Zegras has just 13 points in 28 games.

The situation seems awfully similar to what we saw from the Columbus Blue Jackets last season under former head coach Pascal Vincent, and it certainly would not be surprising to see several of the Ducks’ high-end prospects find better results with more fitting usages if Cronin is let go this summer. If the Ducks’ young core truly seemed to be playing defensively strong hockey, that would obviously be a huge credit to Cronin, but that does not seem to be the case.

Lukas Dostal and John Gibson have combined to save 29.7 goals above expected, which is the second-highest rating of any team. The Ducks have allowed 3.78 xGA/60 this season, and 32.35 shots against per 60. Both of those marks grade out as second-worst in the NHL, and they are also right at the bottom of the league in terms of time spent in the defensive zone.

The addition of former New York Rangers captain Jacob Trouba was meant to help bring a strong leadership presence into the room, and help teach the young core how to be a professional. Intangibles aside, Trouba’s addition has created a backlog on the Ducks blue-line, and now key pieces of the team’s young core such as Olen Zellweger are routinely out of the lineup.

While confirmation towards Anaheim’s starting goaltender is not overly critical from a handicapping perspective, John Gibson is the projected starter in this matchup. Gibson holds a +14.0 GSAx rating this season and a .913 save percentage in 21 appearances.

The Flames’ back-to-back regulation losses has put a big dent in their hopes of earning a surprising playoff berth, but given that they played the top two teams in the league, the performances certainly were quite respectable.

The Flames were arguably the better team versus the Washington Capitals on Tuesday night, and Capitals bettors like myself certainly have to feel a little lucky to have ended up winners. The Flames held a 13-11 edge in high-danger chances, but struggled to finish a number of true ‘Grade-A’ scoring chances against searing-hot Calgary native Logan Thompson.

A lack of truly elite offensive talent continues to be a thorn in the Flames’ side, as they continue to control play at a respectable rate, but have a hard time finishing scoring chances. While Nazem Kadri and Jonathan Huberdeau have both had quality seasons overall, they are still far from point-per-game players at this point in their respective careers, and the bottom-six remains highly unproductive. 

Over the last 15 games, the Flames have scored just 2.53 goals for per game, but rank 12th in the league in shots for per 60 in that span. Their 8.99% shooting percentage in that span ranks 25th in the NHL. Over the entirety of the season the Flames rank 30th in shooting percentage, so perhaps it’s time to reevaluate things if you are among the Flames faithful screaming “shoot” when players opt to pass up low-quality opportunities.

With Kevin Bahl sidelined, we will likely continue to see more defenders coming in and out of the lineup as head coach Ryan Huska looks to find the ideal combination for the time being. Tyson Barrie had some tough moments versus the Capitals, but he was quite solid overall and was a hair away from a critical game-tying goal. I’d say the veteran did enough to remain in the lineup, but at the time of writing the Flames have not completed their morning skate, and it’s unclear what changes we might see on the back end.

When these teams last sqaured off on January 7th in Anaheim, the Flames generated 33 shots and held a 13-8 edge in high-danger chances. Still, the Flames failed to create much separation on the scoreboard, and it took until three-on-three overtime for the Flames to earn a 3-2 win.

The game script we saw when these teams met earlier in the month seems likely to be replicated, as the Flames will likely be able to keep a fairly modest Ducks attack in check on home ice, but could struggle to finish scoring chances once again versus Gibson or Dostal.

A total of six goals looks a little high, and I see value backing the game to go under six goals at -117 or better.

This also looks like a good spot to back Kadri recording over 3.5 shots on goal at +104, after he looked highly dangerous versus the Capitals on Tuesday. Kadri had a goal from seven attempts the last time these teams faced off, and the Flames’ top line should be able to create a ton of looks in this matchup, particularly as the Flames will now hold last change.