The 4 Nations Face-Off may have come at a good time for the Calgary Flames, who limped into the break on a three-game losing streak, including an ugly collapse versus the Seattle Kraken in their last matchup prior to the layoff. They enter tonight’s matchup versus the San Jose Sharks three points back of the Vancouver Canucks for the final playoff spot, holding one game in hand.

Surely the Sharks also felt relieved to get some time off, as they entered the break in the midst of a 1-8-1 stretch of play and currently sit 32nd in the NHL standings.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

While Macklin Celebrini continues to look even better than expected, the Sharks are certainly a long ways from competing and have been thoroughly dominated over the last two months of play. The good news is they will likely have close to a 45% chance at earning a top-two selection in this year’s draft.

Over the last two months of play the Sharks are just 4-15-1, and have allowed 4.15 goals against per game. They have received the league’s worst save percentage in that span of .841, and are also allowing the most high danger chances against per 60. They have lost by two goals or more in 13 of those 20 matchups, including the last matchup between these two sides on December 28th.

While a number of the team’s young skaters are still learning to defend at the NHL level, it has been a number of the team’s veterans such as Luke Kunin and Barclay Goodrow who have been the most drastically outplayed, which should be viewed as a positive big picture.

It’s unclear whether it will be Alexandar Georgiev or Vitek Vanecek starting in goal in this matchup. Georgiev holds a -12.1 GSAx rating this season, which is the second worst mark in the league. However Vanecek’s -0.64 GSAx per 60 actually suggests he has been even worse, albeit in a small sample.

While the rest that came with the 4 Nations Face-Off will benefit all rosters, it did seem to come at a particularly good time for the Flames, as it may have provided enough time for Connor Zary and Kevin Bahl to return to the lineup.

Based on yesterday’s practice, it looks as though Zary will skate on second line alongside Blake Coleman and Mikael Backlund, as well as the second power play unit. In 96.2 minutes together that trio has outscored opponents 3-1, and allowed only 2.48 xGA/60. Backlund did not seem to be moving all that well prior to the lay-off, and it will be interesting to see if the Flames’ Captain offers a little more jump after some time off in this match-up.

The additions of Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee have not yet lead to much team success, as the Flames are just 1-3-1 since their acquisitions. However a small sample of play should not dispel the possibility that Calgary’s roster is notably better now than it was prior to the trade, and both Frost and Farabee have shown flashes of strong play in the early going.

The trade happened to coincide with the loss of Kevin Bahl, who had been a rock while averaging over 20 minutes per game prior to his injury. Bahl’s potential return will hopefully help Rasmus Andersson stabilize his game, which has been in steady decline after Andersson’s excellent start to the campaign.

Dustin Wolf should be a safe bet to get this start coming out of the lengthy break. Wolf holds a +9.8 GSAx rating, and .912 save percentage in 33 appearances this season.

There was clearly some rust around the league throughout yesterday’s high scoring 14 game slate, and a number of games were visibly sloppy. While this being the first game back does add a layer of volatility, both teams will be fighting through the same potential concerns, and this is a game the Flames simply have to have if they want to make a playoff push in the second half.

With Zary, Frost and Farabee in the mix the Flames top-nine looks far more well balanced and could provide better offensive results moving forward. A match-up versus the Sharks provides an excellent opportunity to kickstart the offence, as they have been in awful defensively and continue to get sub-par goaltending.

Hopefully Bahl will return and help alleviate the Flames’ shaky defensive play of late. While it still seems crazy to me to view Bahl as a true needle-mover, he has been excellent this season and the defence core has clearly been much less effective since his injury.

At +111 I see value backing the Flames to cover the puck-line as they take on a Sharks side sporting the league’s worst road record.